President Joe Biden confusing Taylor Swift and Britney Spears may have been funny, but a continued inability to connect with young people, especially young Democrats, will not be a laughing matter for his reelection campaign next year.
With hypothetical head-to-head polling indicating a close race between Biden and likely 2024 Republican nominee former President Donald Trump, every vote will count in 12 months.
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Biden's support of Israel amid its war against Hamas has strained the president's relationship with young people, including Democrats, who are more open to criticizing Israel than their older counterparts. The conflict, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has arguably distracted Biden from his climate priorities, which tend to be important to young Democrats. Biden's overtures to the demographic have also been undermined by the Supreme Court, which has ruled against his federal student loan debt forgiveness proposals.
But pollster David Paleologos advised against pigeonholing young people as single-issue voters, whether regarding the Israel-Hamas war, climate, or student loans. They additionally care about the economy and inflation, according to Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center.
"In our last national poll, young people trusted Donald Trump more to handle the economy, 51%-41%, over Joe Biden," Paleologos told the Washington Examiner. "But, among these same young voters in a ballot test, Biden led by 3 points, 35%-32%. The difference? Independent candidate RFK, who pulled young voters away from Trump."
"Both scenarios are bad for Biden currently, either more young voters voting for Trump or more young voters voting third-party, because it's one less vote for Biden and reduces the advantage Biden should have in this key age voting bloc," he said. "That's a far cry from the 24-point thumping Biden gave to Trump among those ages 18-29 years, 60%-36%, in the 2020 election."
But more broadly, for former Democratic strategist Christopher Hahn, Biden's lack of appeal among young Democrats is driven by personality and not policy.
"President Biden’s struggles with young voters is due to one thing and one thing alone: They think he’s too old to be president," the former aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and host of the Aggressive Progressive podcast said. "That factor taints all other issues for those voters."
"That said, nothing motivates young voters and the entire Democratic coalition better than Donald Trump," he added. "If Trump is the GOP nominee, they will rally to Biden. If the GOP walks away from Trump and nominates Nikki Haley, it’s big trouble for Biden."
Biden's campaign is mindful of the president's enthusiasm gap, amplifying a story Wednesday about how young people are "furious" with and "frightened" by Trump promising, again, to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Obamacare permits those under 26 to remain covered by their parents' healthcare insurance plans.
"He is failing the young generation," Jack Lobel, spokesman for the nonprofit organization Voters of Tomorrow, told USA Today of Trump.
Biden himself emailed about 813,000 federal student borrowers this week to remind them that their loans were forgiven by his administration. A White House official promoted the move, emphasizing how Biden has canceled $127 billion in debt for almost 3.6 million people.
"In August, the administration launched the SAVE plan, the most affordable student loan plan ever, which will save borrowers millions in monthly payments," a White House official said. "Already more than 5.5 million people have signed up for SAVE and of those, more than 2.9 million have a payment of $0 thanks to the administration’s plan."
Vice President Kamala Harris has been trying to help Biden with young people, traveling the country since September as part of her “Fight for Our Freedoms College Tour.”
"They've only known the climate crisis," Harris told donors this week in Houston. "They have witnessed states, including this very state, take away voting rights, take away — they saw the highest court take away a woman's right to make decisions about their own body. They witnessed the killing of George Floyd. They have endured active-shooter drills."
"Doing this college tour, what I — where I met over 15,000 young people, it is so clear that these issues are, for them, a lived experience," she said. "This is not some conceptual issue. This is not an academic issue. And they are prepared to step up in a way that they believe we also will step up."
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Biden, 81, who this week joked about being "over 40" during a fundraiser in Denver, confused Swift and Spears during last week's Thanksgiving turkey pardoning ceremony.
"You could say even it’s harder than getting a ticket to the Renaissance Tour or Brit— Britney’s [Taylor’s] tour. She’s down in — it’s kind of warm in Brazil right now," he said of Swift during the Brazilian leg of her Eras tour, per the White House transcript.