Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) could be in danger of losing if he seeks reelection.
Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) holds a commanding 22-point edge over Manchin, 54% to 32%, in a recent East Carolina University poll and has a positive job approval rating of 57%, with 29% disapproving.
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“Although it is still early, Jim Justice is the clear favorite to win in West Virginia’s 2024 U.S. Senate election. He is a popular Republican governor challenging an unpopular Democratic incumbent in a heavily Republican state," Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research, said.
Justice announced his Senate campaign last month and has long been seen as the gravest political threat to Manchin, who has managed to cling to his Senate seat in the ruby-red state for multiple terms.
Manchin's approval rating is underwater at 33% approval, with 59% disapproving, according to the poll. The senator also trails Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) 40% to 41%, despite generally topping him in other polls. Justice, who is squaring off against Mooney in the primary, edges him out 53% to 12%.
The poll was conducted from May 22 to 23 among 957 registered voters in West Virginia. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Manchin has been coy about his 2024 plans and has recently stepped up his criticism of the Biden administration over the Inflation Reduction Act and other hot-button topics.
"I am laser-focused on doing the job West Virginians elected me to do — lowering healthcare costs, protecting Social Security and Medicare, shoring up American energy security and getting our fiscal house in order,” Manchin previously said in a statement. “But make no mistake, I will win any race I enter."
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Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is the top choice among West Virginia Republicans, with 54% favoring him and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) running in a distant second place with 9% support, according to the poll. Trump demolished President Joe Biden in West Virginia by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020.
West Virginia is a top target for Republicans hoping to recapture the Senate in 2024. Democrats hold a threadbare 51-49 majority in the upper chamber. Senate Democrats will have to protect 23 seats, three of which are held by Democratic-aligned independent senators. Republicans only have to defend 11.