A plane belonging to Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force exploded while flying in the Tver region just north of Moscow on Wednesday. The TASS state media outlet reports that Wagner's chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was on board.
Is this Vladimir Putin's revenge for Prigozhin's June coup d'etat attempt?
Video of the incident and radar data precipitating it suggests that the plane suffered either an on-board explosion or an impact from ground-based fire before plummeting to the ground. Wagner affiliated social media accounts are accusing Russian air defense forces of shooting the jet down. Whether that's true or not, it does appear that Prigozhin is dead. TASS quotes Russia's air ministry as stating that "An investigation has been launched into the crash of the Embraer aircraft, which occurred tonight in the Tver region. According to the list of passengers, among them is the name and surname of Yevgeny Prigozhin."
Two key points follow.
First, if Prigozhin's jet was downed, it is unlikely that this was an accident. Russian air defense forces in Tver guard the northern and western approaches to Moscow. They would be crucial in any major war with NATO and are generally well-trained and equipped. Moreover, saturated civilian airliner traffic operating in this area means that these forces take significant precautions against mistaking an airliner for a threat. That concern has taken on additional import as Ukraine ramps up its drone activity against Moscow.
Point two: Putin had very good reasons to kill Prigozhin. It's not just Prigozhin's aborted June coup that matters here. It's the fact that Prigozhin followed that coup by attending political events and running around various high end St. Petersburg hotels (St. Petersburg is Putin's hometown). The chef turned mercenary seemed to be mocking Putin's authority. Considering that the central plank of Putin's long rule has been his publicly understood possession of unquestioned power, Prigozhin's antics have greatly undermined Putin's authority. Putin needed him gone.
Yet Prigozhin's very questionably sourced demise also carries significant risks for Putin. Even if Putin has sought to buy the loyalty of Wagner commanders and consolidate his security forces since the coup attempt, the Wagner Group retains thousands of armed fighters and a significant portfolio of military equipment. Loyalty to Prigozhin may see this incident precipitate grave new challenges to Putin's rule.
Buckle up.