KYIV, UKRAINE — In the early hours of Friday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials said was one of the largest aerial attacks of the war. It involved at least 400 drones and 40 ballistic missiles. The strike, a response to Ukraine‘s “Spiderweb” operation targeting Russian strategic bombers last weekend, killed four and injured dozens.

By morning, however, the city carried on. Street workers repainted pedestrian crossings under the sound of sirens. Public transit resumed. Cafes opened. Inside Ukraine, these attacks no longer produce great panic. “Fear is not working for Ukrainians after three years of threats. But can possibly work on some partners”, a Ukrainian official said. 

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And that is what Moscow aims for. The sirens, the rubble, the images are designed to land not just in Kyiv, but in Washington. Vladimir Putin wants to reignite fear of escalation and fatigue around continued support for Ukraine. His attacks are designed to tell Western leaders and populations, alongside the Ukrainian ones, that Russia can continue the war for a long time.

Moscow is calculating that while the military campaign has not handed it a victory in Ukraine, its focus on using force to deliver broad political pressure can still yield results. The Kremlin is betting that exhaustion in the West will increase Western pressure on Ukraine to make more concessions. Put simply, Russia hopes to secure via political machinations what it has failed to seize on the battlefield: Ukrainian capitulation, de facto territorial concessions, and primarily, the inviability of Ukrainian sovereignty.

To support that strategic goal, the Kremlin embraces psychological warfare. One mechanism of action here is Russia’s Oreshnik missile — a hypersonic weapon heavily promoted by Russian state media. Its technical capabilities remain unclear, and its battlefield utility appears limited. But its purpose is not military. “It’s honestly kind of a waste if the Russians were to fire those. It would be for terror tactics and informational purposes,” George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War told me. “The use of [this system] is for nuclear saber-rattling. The main target of any Oreshnik strike would be Washington’s decision-making more than anything”, he added. 

This type of fear-based messaging has worked for Moscow in the past. When President Joe Biden was in office, Russia used nuclear brinkmanship and U.S. fears of escalation to secure delays and deterrence of Western military assistance to Ukraine.

But if Russia no longer believes it can decisively shift the balance of power on the battlefield, Ukraine is adopting the same mentality. Both countries are instead aiming at decision-makers in Washington. 

At the same time, Ukraine now holds the escalation advantage. Russia has played almost every card: lining tanks along the border, ballistic missiles, and nuclear threats. With reported Russian casualties nearing one million and Moscow increasingly tied down, Ukraine is actively eroding Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders. This bears note as some observers in Washington and Brussels continue to mistake Russia’s bluffs for true power. They risk handing Russia political concessions that would ultimately reward its military failures.

And a Russian victory would mean new wars of Russian conquest. In Georgia, Moldova, and then possibly even NATO states such as Estonia. What the Western naysayers forget is that a Ukrainian victory is achievable. Ukraine can outlast Russia, but only if Western aid comes at a far greater scale. Not drop by drop. It also requires a new understanding that escalation doesn’t come from helping Ukraine too much, but from helping it too little, too late.

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The Kremlin is counting on Washington preferring the illusion of peace over the fear of a distant and seeming forever war. But in Kyiv, fear no longer dictates outcomes. The question now isn’t whether Ukraine can hold. It’s whether the West can. 

If Russia agrees to a ceasefire — it can only be one that provides Ukraine with security guarantees in the form of a substantial military Western presence and further defensive militarization of the country —  a scenario Moscow is unlikely to accept. Anything else will only buy a little time before the next Russian assault.