Bloomberg reports that the Biden administration is successfully pressuring Israel into delaying a ground offensive into Gaza. The White House's rationale is that such a delay will facilitate negotiations to release Americans and Israelis held by Hamas.
This pressure is a mistake.
BIDEN GOES DIRECTLY TO THE PUBLIC ON ISRAEL AND UKRAINE WITH OVAL OFFICE ADDRESS
True, the White House appeared to gain some legitimacy for its strategy when two Americans, a mother and her daughter, were released by Hamas on Friday. Qatar, which hosts Hamas's leadership in Doha, helped arrange the release. Hamas declared that it had released the two hostages for "humanitarian reasons."
To emphasize, the release of these hostages is positive news. The problem is that this release is only one small tip of a broader strategic iceberg. Hamas continues to hold around 200 hostages, including numerous other Americans. It is telling that Hamas has only released two hostages thus far. It is also telling that the group took pains to give credit to Qatar in its statement. This educates us to Hamas's strategy.
Hamas and Qatar appear to believe that they can prevent an Israeli ground offensive through a slow-drip release of hostages. Hamas will hope that as the days roll on, international pressure will grow for Israel to suspend its bombing campaign in Gaza. They'll hope that this pressure combines with escalating efforts by Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah to intimidate Israel against decisive action in Gaza or elsewhere. Iran is now using its proxies in Yemen, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iraqi militia groups to leverage calibrated aggression against Israel and the United States. It is gambling that the U.S.-Israeli fear of escalation is greater than their resolve to retain the initiative.
Israel and the U.S. should not play into that gambit.
Don't misunderstand me. Assuming Abdel Fattah el Sissi doesn't play games (an unfortunately big assumption), the U.S. is right to push Israel to allow a humanitarian corridor from Egypt into Gaza. Biden is also right to assert that a two-state solution remains the eventual (if distant) U.S. goal for Israel and the Palestinians. And yes, Palestinian civilians deserve respect — and Palestinian Americans also. Nevertheless the basic imperative here must be Israel's resumption of strategic authority. That authority was gutted on Oct. 7 and, along with it, Israel's raison d'etre of providing a safe haven for the Jewish people. Hamas knows it. Iran knows it. Israel's enemies know it. And the U.S. should not lose sight of it.
What Washington must now focus on is the reality that it can impose a more favorable strategic calculus if it desires. Multiple Air Force fighter and bomber squadrons, a U.S. carrier strike group (soon two and, according to rumors, three), a Marine expeditionary force, and an undisclosed number of Tomahawk-laden guided missile submarines provide a potent force. Does the U.S. want to use these forces in combat? No. Should it act diplomatically where possible to prevent that outcome? Yes. But Washington must not lose sight of the fact that Iran and Hezbollah don't want these U.S. forces in action either. If they did, Hezbollah would have already launched a full-scale assault on northern Israel, and Iran would have already started firing ballistic missiles at Israel. They would have done so because they sense Israel has rarely been more vulnerable.
That is the exigent point here. In turn, if the U.S. wants its citizens recovered, it should make something plain to Hamas: Those hostages must not be harmed under any scenarios and that, if they are, five-star hotels in Doha nor European fundraising circuits will no longer provide refuge.
While there is a limited utility to keeping Hamas fighters guessing as to when an Israeli attack will come (high-stakes sentry duty for days on end gets tiring), the Israeli government must have the final say when it enters Gaza. They must, because what happened on Oct. 7 was, in ideological intent, desired scale, and brutal tactics, a modern version of the Krakow ghetto liquidation — an atrocity masterfully encapsulated by Steven Spielberg as in the video below.
As Iran's nuclear program spins deep underground, Israel's enemies must know Krakow and Oct. 7 won't ever be repeated.