With Israel appearing to make the final preparations for a ground invasion of Gaza, the prospect of an intervention from the militant group Hezbollah continues to grow.
The Iranian proxy, based in Lebanon, has grown to become perhaps the most powerful non-state actor on Earth. With 30,000-50,000 fighters, more than 150,000 missiles, and extensive combat experience in Syria and across the Middle East, the group has emerged as arguably Israel's most dangerous adversary. Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, compared the group's combat potential to that of "a medium-sized European country."
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Speaking with the Washington Examiner, Schanzer said he believes the current level of escalations points to the strong possibility that Hezbollah is looking to intervene.
"I think that Hezbollah was made for this moment and would very much like to go in, and Iran probably would welcome it, if not even urge it," Schanzer said.
"I think there is an above-average chance of a multi-front war, given their inclinations and temptations," he continued. "Thinking that maybe there's blood in the water after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas."
What would a war between Israel and Hezbollah look like?
According to Schanzer, Hezbollah wouldn't have the ability or the will to invade Israel truly, but would love nothing more than to seize some border towns and raise its flag over it — largely for psychological effect. But despite its power, unlike on Oct. 7 along the Gaza border, Israel is fully prepared for any such incursion, making the prospect far more difficult. Schanzer said that Israel currently has nearly 300,000 troops deployed along the Lebanese border.
The main focus of Hezbollah would be on its main strength — its massive stockpile of missiles, with which it can overwhelm Israel's vaunted Iron Dome and other air defense systems.
"Then comes the missiles that... would likely be carpet bombing Israel. I think there's no other way to put it, you know, 120,000 rockets, massive salvos with [Precision Guided Munitions] blended in, among the unguided rockets," Schanzer said. "All in an attempt to overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome system ... there's only so many interceptors that Israel can use at any given time."
The result would be "catastrophic" for Israel, with massive damage to Israeli cities and infrastructure.
Israel would respond by pounding Lebanon from the air, inflicting massive damage. Any ground incursions would be limited, as the IDF has little desire to venture back into Lebanon. The furthest prospect would likely be the establishment of a buffer zone within Lebanon, reminiscent of what was in place from the 1980s to 2000.
In the event of the carpet bombing of Israel with rockets, the IDF would change its rules of engagement, resulting in the widespread destruction of Lebanon. Such a possibility is the one major factor deterring Hezbollah, Schanzer said.
Potential for expansion
A war between Hezbollah and Israel would be almost guaranteed not to remain contained between the two. Hezbollah, though the most powerful of Iran's proxies, would be unlikely to go at Israel alone.
"Hezbollah does its own fighting... I think it's a point of pride for the organization," Schanzer said. "I do think that there is coordination, right now, Iran-led coordination between Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and then a handful of Shiite militias that we see active in places like Syria and Iraq. I think that in the event of a war, that includes Hezbollah and Hamas against Israel, I think there is a high likelihood that if such a war is underway, that we will see Shia militias also join from Iraq and from Syria."
"If a full-scale, multi-front war begins, it's hard to believe that Iran would withhold any of the assets, especially because the majority of them are pawns for Iran if we're looking at the board in chess terms," he continued. "Hezbollah is more of a powerful piece — you might even say that Hamas is a somewhat powerful piece. The Shia militias are very much disposable ... they are not the key valued sort of military pieces that Iran would want to save for later. If it was truly trying to launch a war of annihilation."
In such a scenario, with Iran committing its assets from across the region, the likelihood of Iran itself entering the war becomes a distinct possibility.
A direct war with Iran is exactly the scenario that the U.S. and Israel are looking to avoid at all costs, Schanzer said. The direct involvement of Iran would be all but guaranteed to invite U.S. intervention as well — involvement that could also be triggered by increasing attacks from Iranian proxies at bases in Iraq and Syria.
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The looming possibility of a cataclysmic war across the Middle East all comes down to a "big game of chicken" between the players.
"In the region, you've got two sides that are staring each other down and even heading in each other's direction," Schanzer said. "But we don't know if anybody would actually draw. And that's that's the big question mark. No one really knows how to answer it right now. But the deterrence does not appear to be holding, and there is a real risk of a full-scale regional war in the Middle East."