Only hours after a possible ceasefire deal was announced between Israel and Hamas, Khalil al Hayya, chairman of the terrorist organization, declared victory, contending that the mass murder of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023, would “forever be a source of pride for our people.”
Speaking from the safety of Qatar, Hayya didn’t express a hint of regret for the deadly tragedy he helped bring down on his own people, promising that the next Oct. 7 would finally “expel the occupation from our lands and from Jerusalem in the earliest time possible.”
We’ll see about that, I guess.
President-elect Donald Trump said the ceasefire deal is “epic.” It isn’t. At best, it’s a painful, and hopefully fleeting, surrender to theocrats that will save the lives of some hostages.
If the deal is finalized, it will reportedly entail a six-week ceasefire that would see a gradual withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip, though not the Philadelphi Corridor, the sieve that separates Gaza from Egypt and Iranian armaments. In turn, the terrorist group promises to release 33 hostages on “humanitarian” grounds, which is to say perhaps they will be alive, though there are no guarantees. Israel will hand over 30 terrorists for each of the kidnapped civilians. Hamas will still be holding 65 hostages, American citizens among them. Many, if not most, are likely dead.
Israel will also release 50 terrorists for each one of the five kidnapped female soldiers. Those women likely faced unimaginable horrors. So, yes, the deal stinks, but a civilized people has a duty to do whatever it can to protect its women and children (another reason why women shouldn’t be in combat zones — a luxury that a small nation like Israel doesn’t possess.)
The Arab media, Wikipedia, and other antagonists of the Jewish state refer to the trade of 30 terrorists for each innocent person as a “prisoner exchange.” Really, it’s just mass extortion and ransom and a stark reflection of the value each side places on human life.
The ceasefire itself means little in the long run. It’s not as if Hamas is concerned about civilian casualties in Gaza. Indeed, it welcomes them. Why else would it embed munitions and operational centers under hospitals and schools? Former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is on record telling his underlings that churning out thousands of martyrs is the best way to manipulate the credulous Western establishment.
As Hayya tells us, Palestinians do not view the cessation of fighting as a time to forge lasting settlements, peace, or security but rather as a time for retrenchment. After all, there was a ceasefire in place on Oct. 6, 2023.
So, why now? It’s almost surely the case that the incoming Trump administration frightened Hamas. Not long ago, the future and past president promised there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t returned by his inauguration, which is early next week. The remnants of Hamas believed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was about to be unleashed.
Other reports claim that Trump also pressured Netanyahu to take the deal (as of this writing, Israel hasn’t voted on the proposal). Perhaps. Though, to be fair, Israel has traded terrorists for Israeli hostages, alive or dead, for decades. It’s easy to say, “Never negotiate with terrorists.” In real time, the moral calculations are complicated.
President Joe Biden, who often delayed Israel’s efforts to decimate Hamas and Hezbollah, said the new deal would bring a “permanent end of the war.” Well, Hayya disagrees. History disagrees. And the Israeli electorate, which no longer seems keen on living with Iranian-proxy terrorist states on its borders, also tends to disagree.
As far as we can tell, nothing in the deal means the war is over. One hopes that after hostages are brought to safety, the IDF reinvades after six weeks and decimates the remnants of Hamas — or the Islamic Jihad or Jihadis of Gaza, or whatever the next iteration of the terrorist group is called — and keeps doing so until the Palestinians in Gaza finally embrace reality. There is no other choice.
Oct. 7 should have atomized any residual notion that the Arabs of Gaza can be given state. The (thankfully) outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the “Palestinian Authority” will take part in the postwar Gaza, “inviting international partners to help establish and run an interim administration responsible for running key civil sectors in Gaza such as banking, water, energy, health and civil coordination with Israel.”
Is he high? The last time we saw Fatah officials operating in Gaza, Hamas supporters were throwing them off roofs of office buildings. The corrupt Palestinian Authority leadership, which siphons off billions in international aid, can barely control Hamas in Judea and Samaria. Even after Oct. 7, Fatah was talking about joining a unity government with Hamas. The idea that they can be entrusted with rebuilding Gaza is wishcasting.
Nor can Israel allow “partners” such as the odious United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East back into Gaza. We know at least 12 of UNRWA’s employees took part in the Hamas massacre, not merely offering logistical help or coordination but sometimes participating in the kidnapping and murdering of civilians. More than that, the organization itself has been providing cover for Hamas operations for years.
Israel certainly can’t allow Qatar to lead rebuilding efforts, either. The unfortunate consequence of the ceasefire deal is that it imbues Qatar with an undeserved reputation as a peace broker. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, even praised the theocratic state that has sent billions to Hamas for “doing God’s work.” Granted, I’m not a theologian, but I have a difficult time recognizing what part of God’s plan entails offering a haven to leaders of a group that celebrates the wanton murder of babies, funds extremist anti-American networks, and runs the most far-reaching and powerful Islamist propaganda outlet in the world.
Many Israelis and supporters of the Jewish state are angry about the deal. They argue not only that these types of arrangements incentivize more hostage-taking, which is true, but they claim handing back Gaza means the loss of life was for nothing.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that Netanyahu accomplished much after the massive security lapse of Oct. 7. Perhaps most impressively, he held off the Biden administration, which pushed Israel to surrender immediately and hand Hamas a shiny new Palestinian state.
Israel largely decimated Hamas, eliminating thousands of its militia and decapitating its leadership, killing, among others, Sinwar. Hamas allies with Hezbollah, the theocratic militia that has kept Lebanon in a state of turmoil for decades, is also in disarray. Operation Grim Beeper greatly mitigated collateral damage and left thousands of Hezbollah militants dead or injured. The success of the Northern Front helped topple the genocidal Iranian stooge Bashar Assad, who is now in Russian exile. Iran itself, which spent so much treasure erecting proxies throughout the Middle East, is as impotent as it has been in a long time. Its massive missile attack on Israel was largely unsuccessful. Meanwhile, Israel proved it could circumvent the Islamic state’s air defense rather easily if it desired.
It’s understandable, surely, why Israel would approve such a deal. Think back, if you can, to the trauma of 9/11 in the United States. The national pain, and the plight of the families, created immense political pressure to bring home the innocent.
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Trump, a great ally of Israel in his first term, has a political victory before he’s even sworn in. But there are costs and risks attached to allowing Hamas possibly to retrench — though, clearly, Iran won’t be able to rearm them. The question is, does the deal risk putting more lives in danger in the long run?
Time will tell.