President Joe Biden’s declining mental state and poll numbers may have put New York in play in 2024. At the very least, Democrats seem worried about that possibility.
Democratic politicians, consultants, and activists are sounding alarms over polls in the Empire State, with swing district polls showing a dire situation for the party. Internal Democratic polling found Biden down double digits in New York’s 17th and 19th Congressional Districts, both held by Republicans who won in 2022 by 0.6 points and 1.6 points, respectively. Those polls also have Biden down a point in the 22nd District, held by a Republican who won by one point in 2022.
The pressure in New York has built up so much that the state’s second top Democrat, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, released a statement on Wednesday calling for Biden to drop out of the race. Delgado is familiar with the political dynamic of swing-district House Democrats because he was one of them in New York from 2019 to 2022.
These concerns can’t be written off as New York Democrats overreacting either. New York was one of two real bright spots for the GOP in 2022 (the other being Florida). Republican gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin lost in 2022 by fewer than seven points, the closest a Republican has come to becoming New York’s governor since 2002. The last four GOP candidates lost by an average of 29 points, with the closest being a 23-point loss in 2018.
Zeldin’s overperformance relative to the conventional wisdom of New York’s political makeup helped drag several House Republicans over the finish line, allowing the GOP to steal control of the House despite underperforming across most of the rest of the country. Zeldin himself came close to setting off a political earthquake by flipping New York. For context, Zeldin’s performance in New York was more competitive than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Texas since 1990.
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All those Democratic dreams of a “blue Texas” ushering in national supremacy, and it may just be that “red New York” is far more likely now. Imagine that political shift for a second.
Former President Donald Trump probably will not win New York, especially if Biden ends up dropping out of the race and is replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. But the concerns of New York Democrats throw another wrinkle into both the presidential election and the fight over the House of Representatives. If Republicans can truly build on momentum from 2022, it will change the entire political landscape in November.