A decade ago, San Francisco was among the choicest real estate in the country. Its knowledge economy fueled an urban renaissance. The city boasted more billionaires than any other. Housing was pricey and tight, but that did not stop young engineers from flocking to the Bay Area. They came for the city’s cultural offerings, its cosmopolitan and diverse population, and good public schools. Lowell High School in San Francisco, for example, ranks higher than Walt Whitman High School in Bethesda, while KIPP San Francisco College Preparatory outranked Bethesda-Chevy Chase High School.

Today, however, San Francisco is in irreversible decline.

The mayor and city council have embraced every progressive fad. The board of education rubber-stamped every union agenda. Fiscal responsibility fell by the wayside. Reality did not dissuade the ideologues who had an iron grip on city governance. Case in point: a draft reparations plan that would pay black residents $5 million. Politicians often believe their own spin, but residents saw reality. As politicians postured, residents fled. Tourists, some of whom have been victims of random street crime, no longer come. Businesses have shuttered. Conventions choose other venues. The financial district is a ghost town. Homelessness is rampant. Discarded needles and garbage pile up. Gavin Newsom, the former San Francisco mayor who is now California’s governor, last week ordered California's National Guard into the city to deal with the growing drug crisis.

Could Montgomery County, Maryland, be next?

The two locations have much in common. They have roughly the same population. Both became magnets for educated professionals, attracted by niche jobs and top schools. Both are essentially one-party governments. The last time San Francisco elected a Republican mayor, Dwight D. Eisenhower was president. Montgomery County has never had a Republican city council president; its last Republican majority was during Lyndon B. Johnson’s administration.

The problem is not partisan, but rather a lack of accountability when any party dominates for so long. Like his compatriots in San Francisco, Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich has embraced both big government and progressive fads. He recently proposed a 10% property tax increase and a ballooning budget that dips deep into county reserves and commits the county to future mandatory spending as recessions loom. This in turn will mandate even greater tax hikes. School funding has increased as enrollment drops. Families once attracted to public schools now flee as administrators interpret equity as a race to the lowest common denominator. Rather than compete or consider best practices during the pandemic, the county tried instead to shut down competition by forcing private schools to close. (Travis Gayles, the bureaucrat responsible, subsequently left for San Francisco.)

Progressive prosecutors decline to prosecute crime, while local politicians bash the police. As a response, Montgomery County, like San Francisco, is facing a major police recruitment and retention shortfall. Violent crime is rising, as is drug abuse.

It may seem preposterous that one of the most desirable locations in Maryland could decline so quickly. Unlike San Francisco, Montgomery County has the federal government, the jobs for which are recession-proof and keep property demand high. To flee San Francisco takes effort. To escape high tax burdens and excessive government regulations means leaving California entirely, leaving jobs and friends behind.

Montgomery County faces no such barrier. Some have already fled Montgomery County for Howard and Frederick counties, whose public schools continue to prioritize core education over politics. Nor does a move to Virginia require changing jobs or forcing children to leave behind their friends. All it means is a lower tax burden. Even southern Pennsylvania is within reach. Telecommuting only increases flexibility.

It would be a mistake for government officials to confuse constituents with hostages or consider the ballot box the only way residents can vote. As taxes increase, schools decline, crime surges and a recession looms, residents may, as in San Francisco, vote with their feet.

Michael Rubin ( @mrubin1971 ) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.