The world is focused on the fight in Gaza, but to its north, Israel confronts the possibility of a new, devastating war with the Lebanese Hezbollah. It’s a terrorist group and political party that controls Lebanon by leveraging its military power as a dagger against the throat of the state.
On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas and other Gaza-based terrorist groups invaded Israel and perpetrated the largest massacre of Jewish civilians since the Holocaust. Soon thereafter, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern communities, prompting the dislocation of more than a quarter million Israelis on the northern and southern fronts. As the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, has noted: “This is the largest civilian evacuation in Israel’s history.” More than 2,800 rockets have been fired from Syria and Lebanon, and an estimated 61,800 Israelis have been evacuated from 42 communities in Israel’s north.
Unfortunately, the evacuation is a necessary precaution — a recognition of the dangers posed by a full-scale war with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, like Hamas, is backed by Iran. Both terrorist groups have been trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and both seek Israel’s destruction. Yet a war with Hezbollah would be of an entirely different caliber. Hezbollah is a vastly more dangerous foe, with greater armaments and capabilities. Indeed, Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 missiles, many of them precision-guided, which can rain down on the Jewish state. Worse still, many of them are in densely packed civilian population centers.
In Gaza, Hamas has used human shields to its advantage, storing weapons and fighters and launching attacks from hospitals, schools, and United Nations buildings. Their objective is to discredit Israel in the war for public opinion. Hezbollah seems intent on replicating Hamas’s success — and it can do so tenfold.
For years, the terrorist group has been storing rockets and other munitions in Lebanese homes. Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, observed that Hezbollah is “mirroring tactics employed by Gaza terrorist groups” and “effectively leveraging the civilian population of Lebanon as a shield to protect its military assets from Israeli attacks.”
Hezbollah has been steadily building its arsenal for years. And it has done so in complete violation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1701 and 1559 which, among other things, call for Hezbollah to be disarmed. The United States has funded and supported the Lebanese Armed Forces to act as a counterweight to Hezbollah, and the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon is tasked with enforcing these U.N. Security Council resolutions and ensuring peace in southern Lebanon.
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To prevent the outbreak of hostilities, the Biden administration has called for the LAF and UNIFIL to play a greater role. Yet UNIFIL has shown itself to be unable, or unwilling, to halt Hezbollah’s growing power. The LAF is divided between courageous Lebanese patriots, officers fearful of upsetting Hezbollah, and others who have been caught colluding with Hezbollah operatives.
Thus far, Israel has managed to avoid a two-front war while it deals with Hamas. But as Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently told U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein: “We are getting close to the point where the hourglass will turn over.”
The writer is a Senior Research Analyst for CAMERA, the 65,000-member, Boston-based Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis.