Tensions in the South China Sea are quickly escalating as China and the Philippines seek to enforce competing territorial claims. While a 2016 international tribunal ruling and most nations recognize the Philippines's exclusive economic rights to the waters in question, China insists it will not back down.
This has led to increasingly tense interactions between Philippines and Chinese coast guard vessels. Chinese vessels have variously employed water cannons, high-powered lasers and ramming tactics. The most recent incident occurred one week ago when Chinese vessels deployed a net in order to block Filipino fishing vessels from entering the Scarborough Shoal. While the Philippines coast guard then removed that net, the situation may repeat itself to a different outcome.
Other tensions abound further south at the Second Thomas Shoal. Here, Philippines marines are stationed on a beached vessel in defense of Manila's territorial claims. But China has variably sought to prevent the resupply of these marines and intends to militarily secure the area when the decrepit vessel finally falls apart.
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As shown by the map below, both shoals are well within the Philippines's exclusive economic zone and great distances from China.
Tense, uncertain days lay ahead.
The Philippines is pledging to establish control over the Scarborough Shoal. As a Philippines Coast Guard spokesman observed last week, "We have shown the world the Filipino people will not back down, and we're still going to consistently carry out whatever is necessary for us to maintain our presence." Referencing the nets issue, the Philippines admiral responsible for the South China Sea operations added, "Whatever [the Chinese] install, we will remove." The ensuing question: how will China respond if the Philippine more robustly exert its claims?
Put simply, we just don't know. While Beijing's coast guard and navy vastly outmatch Manila's counterparts, Beijing does not want a conflict with a regional power. Beijing knows that the international community and other regional actors would blame it for that conflict. Perhaps more importantly, Xi Jinping and his commanders are well aware of the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty. And that the Biden administration has emphasized America's readiness to defend its ally. Military operations so far from Chinese territory would also be complex, mitigating the People's Liberation Army's air and missile force capabilities. The South China Sea also offers the U.S. Navy more freedom of action that it would otherwise have in any conflict with China over Taiwan.
Still, Xi is loath to appear weak. Having stoked domestic nationalism to support China's vast territorial claims, Xi could not easily accept a Filipino effort to dominate what he has repeatedly claimed is sovereign Chinese territory. To do so, in Xi's eyes, would also risk undermining Beijing's claims over Taiwan. The resolution of the Taiwan question is viewed by Xi as a matter of personal destiny and by the Chinese Communist Party as a political prerequisite for global supremacy.
In short, while it's most likely that Manila and Beijing will find a way to maintain their uncomfortable balance in the South China Sea, that outcome is far from guaranteed. Conflict is an increasing possibility.