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Jul 14, 2025  |  
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Mike Brest


NextImg:Intel community assessment on Iran strike still ongoing

The intelligence community has not finalized its battle damage assessment for the effects of the U.S. military’s strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last month.

The Trump administration and the Pentagon have maintained that the U.S. strikes on the Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities “obliterated” Tehran’s nuclear program, but there are remaining questions as to the extent of the damage, how long it would take Iran to restart uranium enrichment, and whether any of the equipment in the underground facilities that had been targeted can be recovered.

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Despite the proclamations from President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the intelligence community has “only done initial assessments, that final BDA is not complete and will not be complete for some time, as they are still gathering information,” a senior defense official told reporters on Thursday.

The defense official said that the “initial assessments” align with the public comments from Gen. Dan ‘Raizin’ Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said the mission went as designed and the bombs hit the intended targets, but noted, “We don’t have a full BDA to go beyond that.”

The U.S. Air Force used B-2 bombers to drop 14 massive ordnance penetrator bombs on the Fordo and Natanz facilities while a nearby U.S. submarine launched more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles at the Isfahan facility.

The MOPs are 30,000-pound bombs, the largest non-nuclear bombs in the U.S. arsenal. This was the first time the military had used them in battle. These bombs are intended to hit hardened targets buried underground and were created with Fordo in mind.

Officers within the Defense Threat Reduction Agency had been planning to hit Fordo for about 15 years.

While Caine deferred BDA to the intelligence community during two press briefings he and Hegseth held in the days that followed the U.S. attack, he maintained that the operation went exactly as they intended.

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Last week, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the department believes the strikes set Iran’s nuclear program back “by one to two years at least,” adding, “We’re thinking probably closer to two years.”

The United States and Israel have limited visibility into Iran to determine the extent of the damage, and Tehran expelled the inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, blocking the United Nations from understanding the damage as well.