The escalating conflict between India and Pakistan is a rare flashpoint of disagreement between the burgeoning alliance of China and Russia.
With the two South Asian nuclear powers on the brink of war following India’s missile strikes against Pakistan, which it blamed for an Islamic terrorist attack in April, and Pakistan’s vow to retaliate, the hostile situation could put China and Russia at odds.
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Russia has been a longtime ally of India, with the Soviet Union being New Delhi’s main backer during the Cold War. This friendship continued after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Moscow being the primary source of Indian arms imports. This friendship is clashing with China, which has filled the vacuum left by the United States’s shift away from longtime ally Pakistan toward India.
Chinese weapons imports to Pakistan skyrocketed from 36% in 2006-2010 to 81% in 2020-2024, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, obtained by the New York Times. From 2006 to 2010, Islamabad imported equal shares of weapons from China and the U.S. — now it doesn’t import any from the U.S.
India, meanwhile, has become more reliant on Western weapons. Its share of Western arms imports went from minimal in 2006-2010 to a majority in 2020-2004, with 33% from France, 13% from Israel, and 10% from the U.S. Russia is still the single largest exporter at 36%, though this has declined considerably from 75% in 2006-2010.
Despite diversifying its alliances, India retains close ties with Russia. On July 8, 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Moscow for a bilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a notable step given Western attempts to isolate Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. Modi called the meeting “highly productive,” pledging to deepen Russian-Indian cooperation in trade, commerce, security, agriculture, technology, and innovation.
India has been key in helping Russia keep its economy stable despite Western sanctions, buying large amounts of Russian oil. Analysts estimate that 40% of India’s oil imports are from Russia.
While Russia stressed the need for India and Pakistan to come to the table and lessen tensions, striking a neutral tone in public statements, it expressed strong support for India before hostilities commenced.
According to a statement from the Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhi Jaiswal, Putin “expressed full support to India in the fight against terrorism” in a Monday phone call, a day before India launched missile strikes against Pakistan. He added that Modi and Putin pledged to deepen their “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.”
Putin also accepted an invitation to visit India soon.
China, meanwhile, has shown ardent support for Pakistan, while likewise encouraging restraint. China backed Pakistan’s proposal for a neutral investigation into last month’s terrorist attack in Kashmir, one of the most direct signals of support from any country. It also gave strong rhetorical support.
“China always supports Pakistan’s resolute implementation of counterterrorism actions.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an April 27 phone call. “As Pakistan’s ironclad friend and all-weather strategic cooperative partner, China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests.”
Indian media also alleged that Beijing granted Islamabad critical support in easing language in the United Nations Security Council’s statement regarding the Kashmir terrorist attack.
Both China and Russia voiced concern over escalating tensions on Wednesday, but China’s Foreign Ministry singled out “India’s military operation” as “regrettable.”
China has been an ally of Pakistan for decades, partially driven by a longtime border dispute with India. It has greatly boosted its relationship with Pakistan in recent years through heavy economic investment — its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of the Belt and Road Initiative, has featured over $65 billion in Chinese investment. The project has focused on Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy, and transport sectors.
Despite the heavy backing for Pakistan, however, analyst Muhammad Murad argued in the Diplomat that China hopes to avoid increasing tensions between India and Pakistan. It has tried to warm its relations with India over the past year, mainly to diversify its markets amid a trade war with the U.S.
INDIA LAUNCHES MISSILE ATTACK AGAINST PAKISTAN
The split between China and Russia regarding the India-Pakistan conflict is notable due to the two countries being in virtual lockstep on nearly everything else since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
New Delhi and Islamabad are calculating their responses after deadly clashes early Wednesday morning. According to Pakistan, 38 people were killed in Indian military strikes on Pakistani territory, while India said 12 people were killed in Pakistani attacks on its territory.