Former President Donald Trump’s criticisms of NATO indicate that his potential second term in office is likely to undermine the trans-Atlantic security link. Nonetheless, given the close ties Trump developed with Polish officials during his first term and Warsaw’s high defense spending, any threat to Poland from Vladimir Putin’s Russia will require a strong response from the White House. To retain credibility as a world leader, Trump cannot remain passive if Moscow directly challenges key NATO states that are massively spending on their defense.
Regardless of the party in power, Poland has a consistent defense policy in which spending is climbing and its armed forces are expanding. According to the most recent NATO statistics, a record 23 out of 32 countries have reached or surpassed the alliance’s 2% defense spending target. Poland leads at 4.12%, followed by Estonia (3.43%), the United States (3.38%), and Latvia (3.15%). In 2023, Poland recorded the highest defense spending in Central Europe, and it will continue to raise its military budget and double the number of its armed forces to 300,000 personnel.
NATO has also issued guidelines that at least 20% of annual defense expenditures should be allocated to purchasing military equipment. Poland and most of its neighbors have consistently exceeded this target. Warsaw has allocated more than 50% of its defense spending on military modernization, placing Poland in first place in the alliance, and the bulk of its weapons purchases benefit U.S. industry.
The previous Polish government, led by the Law and Justice Party, claimed that it would welcome Trump’s reelection, pointing out that during his previous term, the U.S. troop presence in Poland was significantly increased. Trump has praised Poland in the past for its defense spending and maintains a close personal relationship with President Andrzej Duda, who will remain in office until mid-2025.
The current Civic Coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk has expressed concern about any scaling back of the U.S. military in Europe and the potential surrender of Ukrainian territory to Russia. Some officials fear that in a worst-case scenario, even if the U.S. remained in NATO because of congressional buffers against withdrawal, Trump could refuse to invoke Article 5 to help defend a country attacked by Russia. As a result, Warsaw is both ramping up its military capabilities and seeking assurances that a Trump White House would honor its pledge to defend countries that pay their share for defense.
Trump’s distinction between real allies and freeloaders is becoming less salient not only because more countries are ramping up defense spending, but because countries such as Poland would inevitably be drawn into war if a smaller NATO neighbor with more limited defense potential were attacked by Russia. And without U.S. defense commitments, all allies along the eastern front would become more vulnerable regardless of their military budgets. Moscow could even test Trump by staging an incursion in a small state, calculating that he would avoid escalation but seek a diplomatic compromise by giving more territory to Russia.
Instead of simply looking at defense spending, a Trump administration must make certain that America is not outplayed by Russia, as that would embolden other states, such as China and Iran, to challenge Washington. Trump’s foreign policy team needs to consult closely with Poland, which stands at the epicenter of a possible NATO-Russia war.
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Other allies along the eastern front must be brought into the frame, including new members Finland and Sweden, in devising a Trump policy that is effective and does not surrender any ground to Moscow. This will help shape a policy toward Ukraine that ensures its independence and integrity and curtails Russia’s ambitions.
At the same time, the next administration must work with all European allies who are boosting their investment in military industries and substantially increasing weapons production. Expanding Europe’s capabilities over the coming years will decrease military dependence on the U.S. while offering America more capable allies.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book published in the fall is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.