One of President-elect Donald Trump‘s national security advisers during his first term firmly believes Israel will carry out a preemptive attack in the coming years on Iran‘s nuclear facilities.
Retired Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as Trump’s national security adviser from February 2017 to April 2018, told the Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday he believes there’s a “100% chance” Israel will target Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Israel has significantly weakened Iran and its proxies in the Middle East in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack that destabilized the region. However, several of the conflicts continue with no clear end in sight, including the long-standing tension between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
“Well, I think there’s like maybe a hundred percent chance that Israel will strike the elements of [Iran’s nuclear] program and missile program in the next few years,” he said, adding that it’s unclear what role, if any, the United States could play in such an operation.
Israel demonstrated its capabilities to evade Iran’s air defense systems in two separate but limited operations it carried out in 2024 on Iranian soil. In both instances, Israel responded to two massive aerial barrages launched from Iran, one in April and the other in October, in which Israel intercepted an overwhelming majority of the hundreds of missiles fired toward the country.
Ahead of Israel’s more recent response, President Joe Biden publicly said he did not support strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Days after the Israeli response, former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi, who is also an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, warned, “If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine, we have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard.”
Trump, who decided during his first presidential term to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, is set to retake the White House in less than two weeks, and he’s expected to restart a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, which in the years since his first term, has tried to assassinate him.
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Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the “acceleration” of Iran’s nuclear program is nearing the “point of no return,” and Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nation’s nuclear watchdog, told Reuters in December that Iran was “dramatically” accelerating enrichment close to the roughly 90% level that is bomb-grade.
The governments of Germany, Britain, and France released a joint statement following Grossi’s comments, in which they said they were “extremely concerned.”