The U.S. is locked in a battle for supremacy with China and Russia that takes many forms. The constant competition has resulted in the sides looking to gain an advantage in nontraditional battlefields. In space, a previous gentleman’s agreement on warfare no longer holds sway, while there is a constant fight for one-upmanship in the Arctic and in the race to dominate critical minerals. This Washington Examiner series, The Next Frontier, will investigate this existential struggle. Part 3 is on critical minerals.

A new administration has handed the United States the opportunity to catch up in its ever-intensifying trade war with China over critical earth minerals such as lithium, graphite, and cobalt that are foundational for the energy industry and national security.

China has long dominated control over processing these critical minerals for various products such as batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors, and more. In large part thanks to the country’s large domestic reserves of these minerals, the country has held a position at the center of the global supply chain as it supplies a large percentage of critical minerals used worldwide.

As geopolitical concerns have grown regarding China’s influence in these markets, many nations, including the U.S., have sought to reduce their reliance on China for minerals. This comes in tandem with a large push for renewable energy sources, electrification, and technological advancements with artificial intelligence. With demand in these industries expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, the domestic demand for critical minerals will also rise.

Much of trade relations between China and the U.S. have revolved around this race for dominance over critical minerals, with China remaining in the lead. Though recent export restrictions, paired with a new administration, could pave the way for the U.S. to jump ahead.

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The U.S. has hundreds of individual mineral deposits and “unconventional and secondary sources,” per the Energy Department. This includes mine tailings, refuse piles, acid mine drainage, fly ash, and waste from the oil and gas industry.

McDermitt Caldera, along the Nevada-Oregon border, is home to what is thought to be the largest lithium deposit in North America — possibly even larger than the one in Bolivia. Research has estimated that the deposit could be holding between 20 million and 40 million tons of lithium, a game changer for geopolitics and domestic production of critical minerals.

It will take time to confirm the scale of this deposit and see changes within the global supply chain. The first lithium mine in the U.S. only received its final approval in October, with production to begin by 2028.

This is not the only support the Biden administration has given to the mining industry for critical minerals, as the administration has also finalized subsidies to boost domestic production of critical minerals. But combined with green policies supporting electrification and renewables, many have indicated that it is not enough.

Given the time restrictions brought on by permitting, environmental pushbacks, and other hurdles, industry experts have said the U.S. needs to turn its attention beyond its borders.

“The bottom line is certainly that the U.S. will need to cooperate and partner with many international partners in order to sort of bolster supply chain security,” said Seaver Wang, the co-director of the climate and energy team for the Breakthrough Institute. “The U.S. certainly can’t go it alone just based on what’s in our borders.”

Relations with other nations

For Diego von Vacano, a professor of political science at Texas A&M and former lithium policy adviser to Bolivian President Luis Arce, it comes down to U.S. relations with Latin America.

Von Vacano told the Washington Examiner that as there is a weighing threat from China when it comes to critical minerals, the U.S. has the opportunity to rethink policies toward Latin American countries such as Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, and Peru, which are also rich in these minerals.

Bolivia, for example, is home to some of the world’s largest lithium reserves.

He pointed to President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) for secretary of state, noting that having people with a high interest in Latin America in these roles can help those relationships.

“I think it’s really an opportunity to really rethink and reshape the entire U.S. view toward Latin America in a way that’s going to be a little bit more of a partnership, rather than top-down,” von Vacano said.

Those Latin American nations are not the only ones rich in these critical minerals. Australia has some of the largest deposits of minerals such as cobalt, manganese, and tungsten. Canada is home to key resources such as lithium, aluminum, and uranium. Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have around 30% of proven global deposits of critical minerals.

Supporting trade relations with these countries regarding critical minerals offers key alternatives, allowing the U.S. to continue reducing its dependence on China.

Wang said it will likely take a joint effort from the U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe, and more to unseat China as much of the market is dominated by Chinese state-owned enterprises.

“The end goal of policy actually has to be, we want to make sure that 30% of these critical mineral supply chains globally is not located in China,” Wang said. “That has to be the end goal, like moving heaven and earth to ensure that production gets built and stays operating. … That certainly won’t be cheap.”

Domestic changes

Aside from international policy to secure critical minerals, some have suggested that the incoming Trump administration’s focus away from electric vehicles and renewables will actually support efforts to shore up the minerals.

Jason Isaac, the founder and CEO of the American Energy Institute, told the Washington Examiner that it comes down to reprioritizing what these minerals are used for. As the electric vehicle industry is driving much of the demand for critical minerals, Isaac backed Trump’s walk-back of the so-called EV mandate.

“That would free up a lot of the global supply of these minerals for national security, for computers, other things that people really want and want to feel safe,” he said.

Isaac also indicated that the U.S. needs to see major regulatory reform to allow mining projects to receive their permits faster and support the market on a quicker timeline.

The incoming administration could also take a nontraditional approach to boost its position in the global supply chain through immigration policy, von Vacano suggested. The professor explained that as there are many skilled people in critical mineral sectors outside of the U.S., the government could offer education scholarships or priority visas to encourage domestic production and development.

“In a way that might contradict some of the positions taken by Trump on immigration, but it’s really in the self-interest of the U.S. to allow those people to stay here or to give them more visas,” he said.

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Without major change, many are confident China will continue to tighten its hold on the market.

“We’re losing, there’s no doubt about that,” Isaac said. “You look on the EV side, it’s like 99.95% of the graphite that goes into making EVs, it is a required component, is produced or refined in China. I mean, so we’re not making EVs without China. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it. … It’s certainly critical that we should be producing here in this country.”