


Despite an underwhelming performance in 2022, the Republican Party has seized momentum in several key areas, creating a possibly worrying situation for Democrats.
A new survey from Pew Research released Wednesday showed a number of signs that could boost the spirits of Republicans and diminish those of Democrats. The survey found more defections from Democrats to Republicans, and it particularly noted a higher voter turnout among Republicans as opposed to Democrats.
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Voters for former President Donald Trump remained largely loyal to the party; 97% voted for a Republican in 2022, and 71% came out to vote. Voters for President Joe Biden were somewhat less loyal, with 93% voting for a Democrat, and only 67% turning out to vote.
Defections among rural Democrats particularly helped Republicans in 2022.
Perhaps the most worrying for Democrats, however, are trends among Hispanic voters, which particularly helped Republicans.
"Hispanic voters favored Democratic candidates by a 21-point margin in 2022, compared with a 47-point margin in 2018," the report stated. "This change was driven by asymmetric changes in voter turnout among Hispanic adults, rather than changing preferences among individual Hispanic voters."
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Another worrying trend for Democrats is among women; in 2018, widespread activism led Democrats to win over women by an 18-point margin. In 2022, that margin shrunk to just 3 points. As with Hispanic voters, the result wasn't due to defections, but rather different individuals turning out to vote.
However, not all signs are bad for the Democrats. Midterm elections tend to skew older and whiter — two demographics which Republicans have an advantage in. If historical trends continue, Democrats could regain the advantage in 2024.