The Democratic National Committee has no plans of scheduling primary debates for the 2024 presidential election cycle. Many have criticized the move, alleging the organization is "robbing voters" and supporting the widely unpopular sitting president over other candidates. But officials in the Democratic Party seem to have finally realized how legitimate the threat of a non-Biden candidate poses to the party.
Democratic officials on Capitol Hill are sounding alarm bells around the very real possibility of a third-party candidate challenging Biden. Specifically, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), a moderate Democrat, has found himself to be at the center of multiple legislative battles and controversies owing to his bipartisan stances and unpredictable actions.
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Manchin would not be the first to abandon the Democratic Party. For instance, Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) switched to the GOP in 2020, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (I-HI) officially left the Democratic Party in 2022, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) followed suit later that year. Similarly, among voters, research indicates Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support independent candidates: 45% of Democrats are open to the idea while 63% of Republicans are against it.
It seems that Manchin's contribution to Senate Democrats' slim majority has turned out to be a liability for them after all. Not only has Manchin refused to rule out a third-party run but he has also praised No Labels, the organization pushing for centrism and a third-party "unity ticket" nomination in the 2024 election. As of now, the Democratic Party seems scrambled in panic mode while they attempt to protect Biden's re-election chances.
Manchin's unpredictability has caused some Democrats on Capitol Hill to unite around Biden. Far-left progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) recently endorsed Biden’s re-election campaign in an unexpected move, considering her vocal calls for younger leadership during Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) speakership battle. A third-party threat being the reason behind her endorsement cannot be ruled out. This comes in the wake of speculation around Manchin's presidential run, as reports say it has triggered the need for meetings between Democratic chiefs of staff in Congress and liberal advocacy groups MoveOn and Third Way. The meeting is poised to take place on July 27 to discuss the "dangers" of a third-party run for Biden.
Manchin has been the only Democratic congressional official from West Virginia since 2015. The state is solidly Republican, with state Democrats holding only 11 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates and 3 out of 34 in the state Senate. The last time the state voted for a Democratic presidential nominee was over 25 years ago in 1996. But if that isn't enough proof of the bipartisan support he receives from his constituents, members from the GOP including former President Donald Trump himself have publicly expressed support for Manchin to switch parties.
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A Manchin third-party presidential run is the Democratic Party's worst nightmare. It would fracture Biden's support through vote splitting, translating into a smooth ride for the Republican nominee to the White House. But it would also mean the Democrats losing control of the Senate, since Manchin's replacement is most likely to be a Republican owing to the state's strong partisan leanings.
So if the Democratic Party thought they could quietly move forward without primary debates and install Joe Biden as their presidential candidate to save face from a potential primary defeat, they were wrong. Democratic officials in Congress are now concerned that it will be the DNC itself along with its miscalculations which could hand the GOP a comfortable victory in the next election.
Max Mallhi is a summer 2023 Washington Examiner fellow.