House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is facing a choice similar to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's in 2019: whether or not to impeach the sitting president and whether he has the votes and evidence to do it.
Four years after Pelosi announced that House Democrats would move forward with impeaching then-President Donald Trump, House Republicans are now considering an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. It follows months of GOP investigations into Biden's administration and family, whom Republicans believe financially benefited from foreign business dealings as part of what they call an "alleged criminal scheme."
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McCarthy reportedly is looking to start the impeachment process at the end of September, potentially skipping the tradition of holding a floor vote before beginning an inquiry. While neither the Constitution nor House rules require a House vote, the measure has been initiated in impeachment proceedings more than 60 times.
Democrats did not conduct an official inquiry into Trump's second impeachment in 2021, following the riots at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. However, Democrats did introduce an inquiry into his first impeachment in 2019. Trump was acquitted in both cases in the Senate.
McCarthy now faces an uphill battle because he does not have the 218 votes needed for a House vote impeachment inquiry. Some House GOP members privately worry that there is not enough evidence to back up the impeachment inquiry, according to Politico, despite top leaders such as House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) and House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) insisting the evidence is overwhelming that Biden benefited from his son Hunter Biden's foreign business dealings.
If the House GOP moves forward with an inquiry, McCarthy and Republicans will likely be subjecting themselves to the same attacks they launched against Pelosi and House Democrats. Pelosi had been wary to expose her party to the backlash but eventually moved forward after more than a month of interviews to build up their case.
Republicans had called the Trump impeachments "illegitimate" and a partisan political move, something Democrats will be chomping at the bit to reciprocate if the House GOP moves against Biden.
The process to impeach would start in the Judiciary Committee, followed by a motion to file the articles to the House. The House can vote to impeach with a simple majority, which Republicans have narrowly, and then it will be sent to the Senate. Given the Senate is under the control of Democrats, it is likely that any Biden impeachment will face the same fate as the Trump impeachments and he will be acquitted.
However, McCarthy has more things to worry about than the impeachment failing on the House floor. Trump has been extremely vocal that he will be watching House GOP efforts to eliminate any Republicans unwilling to advance his "Make America Great Again," or "MAGA," agenda and has even pledged to support primary opponents against them.
McCarthy also has consistent tension with hard-line conservatives, particularly those in the House Freedom Caucus, who were unhappy with the debt ceiling deal that he made with Biden and for his support of a continuing resolution to keep the government open past Sept. 30.
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“It’s good in terms of conference politics,” a senior Republican lawmaker told Politico under anonymity, “because some people might be upset that the [appropriations] bills aren’t moving quickly, or they have demands that they perceive are not being met, but they’ll have the impeachment inquiry, as well.”
The White House and Biden have denied any involvement in suspicious activities related to Hunter Biden and allegations of bribery and foreign business dealings, with White House spokesman Ian Sams on Monday calling the idea of an inquiry a “baseless impeachment exercise.”