Secretary of State Antony Blinken has concluded his visit to China. Renewed high-level dialogue between Washington and Beijing is positive. Xi Jinping's regime is particularly paranoid in its view of U.S. foreign policy. Miscommunication risks war, so even tense communication has value.
Still, there is a concerning element to this visit. It seems that Blinken may have made concessionary commitments without reciprocity from Beijing. If so, Beijing may view this visit as proof positive that it can use the threat of military escalation as a means of extracting unilateral concessions from the U.S. Indications that Blinken may have made concessions came when Xi declared that "The two sides have also made progress and reached agreements on some specific issues. This is very good."
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True, Xi may be exaggerating or misrepresenting Blinken. That said, a frequent Chinese complaint in recent months has been that previous U.S.-China dialogues have not led to actual policy developments. Xi's reference to "very good" and "specific" agreements suggests that Blinken may have made quiet commitments to him or his foreign policy chief, Wang Yi. It will be important to push the White House and State Department on what these "agreements" might entail.
China's presentation of this summit may also risk U.S. allies and partners believing that the Biden administration is moving toward a more timid stance in its China policy. Blinken's meeting with Xi was clearly staged to make Xi appear dominant, for example. Blinken inadvertently played into this dynamic by slightly lowering his head as he shook hands with Xi. That handshake made a prominent appearance on Chinese state media, as did video of the Xi-Blinken meeting. The screenshot below shows how Xi was positioned at the head of a table with Blinken and Wang Yi on either side. It presents the image of Xi lecturing a deferential U.S. Secretary of State.
Alongside recent homages to Beijing by U.S. business leaders such as Elon Musk and, just before Blinken's arrival, Bill Gates, Beijing may sense that it has secured the strategic initiative via this meeting. Beijing wants to cultivate the international understanding that the Biden administration is desperate for conciliation. It knows that any such understanding will deter U.S. partners from more robust policies toward China. It also knows that indications of U.S. conciliation in its China policy will provide political space to U.S. allies such as the U.K., Australia, Germany, and France to bolster their own appeasement of Beijing. Xi's ultimate goal is to diminish the U.S. alliance structure and replace it with a Beijing-led order of feudal mercantilism.
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The most significant concern, however, is that Xi will view China's recent antics, including the dangerous maneuvering of a Chinese warship against a U.S. Navy warship on June 3, as having provided leverage with which to earn Blinken's political bow. Notably, Blinken admitted on Monday that Xi had rejected his request to establish a military hotline to avoid miscalculations. That's a good indication that China views at least some measure of military miscalculation as a useful means of extracting political concessions. That is not good.
Top line: dialogue is positive, but it cannot come at the expense of U.S. resolve to confront and constrain China's imperially vested threats.