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Naomi Lim, White House Reporter


NextImg:How Biden could benefit from Trump indictment

Republicans, for the most part, have united behind former President Donald Trump after news broke that a Manhattan grand jury had voted to indict the onetime commander in chief.

But doing so may only boost President Joe Biden based on the incumbent's apparent desire to be challenged by his predecessor next year.

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Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg successfully asking the grand jury to indict Trump "almost guarantees" the former president will be renominated as the Republican standard-bearer in 2024, according to GOP strategist Cesar Conda.

"Biden probably wants a rematch with Trump because he's more likely to lose in 2024 to Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis," the founding partner of consulting firm Navigators Global told the Washington Examiner. "But I still think Trump beats Biden."

Another Republican strategist noted Trump was ahead of Biden in many national and state polls despite the president not having announced a reelection campaign. With Nikki Haley, a former U.N. ambassador and two-term South Carolina GOP governor, a declared presidential hopeful and Ron DeSantis (R), who is in his second term as Florida's governor, undeclared, Biden has an average 1 percentage point polling advantage over Trump, 45% to 44%, according to RealClearPolitics.

"That is certainly the conventional wisdom, and Trump is Biden’s preferred candidate if only because one prefers the devil you know to the devil you don’t know," the strategist said.

A separate Republican strategist disagreed: "Biden wins if Trump is the nominee."

In a repeat of 2015 and 2016, it will be "hard" or "impossible" for aspiring Republican presidential contenders "to gain altitude, let alone oxygen," if Trump is dominating the headlines, according to former New Hampshire attorney general and Republican National Committee member Thomas Rath. Trump leads a hypothetical field with an average of 46% support in early polls, followed by DeSantis with 29%, former Vice President Mike Pence with 6%, and Haley with 5%.

"The longer the Trump story lingers, the less likely it is that any serious 'Dem' alternative to Biden might emerge," Rath said. "Additionally, the Trump saga will dwarf coverage of the 'R' House of Reps, to embarrass Biden."

"Think what you will about Trump, his presence as victim-defendant will make any other 'R' candidates look small and push the horse race coverage off the front page," he added.

Former RNC spokesman Doug Heye advised caution because Trump's indictment is set to remain sealed until he is arraigned next Tuesday, during which he is not expected to be handcuffed. Thirty-plus charges are anticipated to concern falsified business records hiding hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels and potentially former Playbook model Karen McDougal.

"The honest answer is we don't know," Heye said. "We still don't even know what the charges are, so everything is wild speculation."

Trump is poised to have a short-term increase in popularity, according to Republican strategist Alex Conant, though the founding partner of public relations firm Firehouse Strategies reiterated Heye's warning. Trump's average favorability-unfavorability rating was net negative 14 points on March 18, the day he predicted he would be indicted, 40%-54%. Roughly 10 days later, it was net negative 14.5 points.

"The White House loves having Trump in the news, especially when he's more focused on attacking the Democratic DA and his primary challengers than Biden," Conant said. "The Democrats know that Trump has badly underperformed with independent voters in recent years, which is probably why Biden would rather face him than a fresh face."

An Ipsos-Reuters poll conducted in mid-March before the Manhattan grand jury voted on Trump's case found 54% of respondents would consider an indictment to be politically motivated, while 37% said they would not — 47% of independents agreed and 40% did not.

One Democratic strategist asserted Bragg's investigation is only one of four publicly known inquiries into Trump. The strategist also differentiated Biden's approach to Trump from that of 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, who assumed the former president would be a weak opponent.

"That's the wrong analogy to draw. That's apples and oranges," she said. "We have the comparison between Biden and Trump, which is what we're going to have again. That's the apples to apples."

Democratic strategist Garry South cited Republicans' decision to renominate Trump in 2020, with the former president losing the popular vote to Biden by 7 million ballots.

"He's been proven right when he boasted that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose any supporters, but his base of supporters simply wasn't enough to win in 2020, and all the surveys show he's actually lost supporters since then as weariness with his antics takes hold, even among some Republicans," South said of Trump. "Of course, we've never before had the experience of someone running for president who's been indicted for committing felonies, so we're on unfamiliar terrain, but it's difficult to see how this helps Trump."

DeSantis alleged Bragg is weaponizing the legal system to advance a political agenda and ignoring the rule of law, describing it as "un-American."

"Florida will not assist in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at issue with this [George] Soros-backed Manhattan prosecutor and his political agenda," he said.

Former Arkansas GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson was careful to underscore how Trump is innocent until he is found guilty, encouraging Republicans and Democrats to provide the process with space to work as "it does for thousands of Americans every day."

"Finally, it is essential that the decision on America's next president be made at the ballot box and not in the court system," he said. "Donald Trump should not be the next president, but that should be decided by the voters."

Meanwhile, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) previously directed relevant committees to investigate whether federal funds are being used "to subvert our democracy by interfering in elections with politically motivated prosecutions." Now he is pledging that the House will hold Bragg and his "unprecedented abuse of power to account."

Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Green (R-GA) urged Trump supporters to put their MAGA hats on and "protest the tyrants," as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) implored Fox News's audience to donate to the former president "to fight this bulls***."

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Biden told reporters on the White House South Lawn he had "no comment" on Trump's indictment, but press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre added Biden learned of the grand jury vote through news outlets and did not have "a heads-up."

"He supports Americans who want to protest peacefully," she said on Air Force One en route to Mississippi of demonstrations. "I'm just not going to get into speculations from here on what may or may not happen. Clearly, we are always prepared."