


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s multiday trip to Washington, D.C., last week, during which he held meetings on Capitol Hill, the White House, and the Defense Department, wasn’t as disastrous as some headlines suggest. Zelensky left the Beltway with another U.S. security assistance package in his back pocket, a $325 million tranche that included more air defense systems and artillery rounds. He was able to strut around with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the two most powerful senators in the chamber. More importantly for Zelensky’s purposes, Biden agreed to transfer ATACMS long-range missiles to the Ukrainian army after opposing it for months.
But there’s no sugarcoating it: the longer the war trudges on, the more likely U.S. lawmakers will be wary of financing Ukraine’s war effort. We already see a decline in public support for sending the Ukrainian army hundreds of millions of dollars worth of defense aid every few weeks. In Washington, the reticence is reflected most clearly among House Republicans, one-third of whom voted for an amendment to the annual defense policy bill that would have removed all military aid to Kyiv (the amendment failed). A CBS News poll released on Sept. 10 found 61% of Republicans surveyed are against continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, up 10 points over the last seven months.
MORE AMNESTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE BORDER CRISIS WORSE
Zelensky’s mission last week was to receive some reassurance about Washington’s support over the long term. What he got instead were more questions from more lawmakers about how sustainable Kyiv’s war strategy is. Even GOP legislators outside the House Freedom Caucus are beginning to stress that the status quo over the last 19 months won’t continue.
All of this is obviously troubling for Zelensky as well as those in the commentariat quick to lambaste anyone who even questions more U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Lawmakers who are trying to corral support for future Ukraine funding packages have taken to using dubious arguments, such as the notion that Ukraine’s defeat could embolden China to invade Taiwan.
Yet no amount of exaggerating or sensationalism can obscure the reality of the situation. And the reality is this: “war fatigue” is starting to set in, and it doesn’t do any good to pretend it doesn’t exist.
U.S. policymakers who are responsible for delivering weapons and ammunition to the field on time are probably asking the same question the Ukrainians are: How long is Congress capable of writing checks? Nobody knows the answer right now, but it’s safe to say that the days when assistance packages to the tune of tens of billions of dollars were approved with minimal debate are likely over.
While it may sound counterintuitive, this actually presents the Biden administration with an opportunity. Biden, of course, would prefer if Congress granted his Ukraine funding requests with minimal fuss; the White House unveiled $24 billion in emergency assistance for Ukraine this summer. But what Biden wants and how the world works aren’t necessarily the same thing.
The lobbying on Capitol Hill will continue. But the U.S. should be doing some lobbying in foreign capitals as well. Instead of holding their heads in their hands and worrying about what Congress may or may not do, U.S. officials should be using the unpredictability of the legislative branch as leverage to get Europe to take on the predominant role of bankrolling Ukraine’s war effort.
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With the exception of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who has been using monthly meetings of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to push European governments into delivering desperately needed munitions supplies to Kyiv, Washington has largely chosen to treat Europe with kid gloves. This is odd considering that Washington’s total military contributions to Ukraine have exceeded those of the European Union, Germany, the U.K., Norway, and Canada combined (although to be fair, the EU is far and away the biggest donor of financial and budgetary aid to the Ukrainian government).
As much as officials and pundits back in the U.S. argue that America’s security is only as good as Ukraine’s, the truth is U.S. power will be unaltered regardless of how the war turns out. One can’t be as confident with respect to Europe, which after all encompasses Ukraine and, by virtue of geography, can’t wish Russia away. The Europeans have more at stake in the conflict; frankly, that means they should be doing more of the work. To the extent that the polling trends back in the U.S. can help the White House make the point, so much the better.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.