The 2024 campaign cycle will mark 70 years since the House last flipped control after a single two-year term. House Republicans want to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself.
Back then, House Republicans capitalized on President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s big 1952 White House win to claim a narrow majority. But it only lasted for two years. Democrats won back House control in the 1954 midterm elections and held it for 40 years.
The 2024 battle for House control comes as Republicans hold almost the narrowest of majorities in the chamber over Democrats, 222-213. The House majority fight will take place against the backdrop of a White House race that could feature a pair of familiar faces — President Joe Biden vs. former President Donald Trump in a replay of 2020. The race might include only one of them. Or, depending on how the next year or so plays out, none at all, with fresh faces on both sides.
A range of factors will determine if Trump can nab the GOP nomination, after being the first out of the gate to declare for president, in late 2022, while Biden, 80, hasn’t said if he’s seeking reelection, though he seems to be leaning toward that direction.
There will be 18 House Republicans defending districts that Biden carried, compared to five House Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump in 2020. Still, Republicans are looking to go on the offense.
Some or all of those Democrats in Trump-won seats will be top Republican targets in 2024. That includes Democratic Reps. Matt Cartwright in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and northeastern Pennsylvania 8th Congressional District, Jared Golden in the northern Maine 2nd District, and Marcy Kaptur in the Toledo and northwestern Ohio 9th District, along with freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in southwestern Washington's 3rd District, who before coming to Congress was an auto repair shop co-owner.
And among those 18 House Republicans in Biden-won seats, top Democratic targets are beginning to emerge. Several freshman and first-term Republicans in 2022 won by the narrowest of margins. That includes Reps. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Pueblo and Western Slope 3rd District (546 votes), John Duarte in California’s mid-Central Valley 13th District (564 votes), John James in Michigan’s Macomb County 10th District (1,600 votes), Mike Lawler in the New York’s Lower Hudson Valley 17th District (1,820 votes) and Zach Nunn in the Des Moines and southwestern Iowa 3rd District (2,145 votes).
Geographically, House Democrats will be looking in their own political backyards to reclaim seats lost in 2022. That is, the blue behemoths of California and New York, where a handful of lost races effectively cost Democrats their four-year House majority, from 2019-2023.
New York state was a particular disaster for House Democrats in 2022. Led by then Rep. Lee Zeldin of Long Island, the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee, House Republicans frequently talked up the scourge of rising crime across New York and nationally. They railed against a streak of shootings and other violent crimes, including a series of unprovoked attacks on New York City subways. Zeldin also was among the first to warn about a Democratic-written state law that ended cash bail, arguing it leads to the quick release of dangerous criminal suspects.
It wasn’t quite enough for Zeldin to claim victory. But Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s 52.9%-47.1% win was much smaller than in normal statewide races. Its biggest beneficiaries were Republican House members, which had already been buoyed by a summer state court decision striking down the congressional map drawn by Democratic state legislators in Albany.
That plan aimed to give Democrats a whopping 22-4 advantage in New York’s House delegation. But a replacement map, drawn by an independent “special master,” was much more competitive. Democrats ended up winning only 15-11, a seven-seat swing away from their electoral plans.
So, in 2024, House Democrats likely will aim first at freshmen lawmakers. The most obvious target is fabulist GOP Rep. George Santos of Long Island, elected in 2022 to represent the northern Nassau County 3rd District.
Santos has made numerous dubious and false claims about his biography, work history, and financial status in public and private. Six weeks after his election, numerous news outlets reported that large parts of his self-published biography appeared to be fabricated, including false claims about his ancestry, education, employment, charity work, property ownership, and crimes of which he claimed to be a victim.
Santos has admitted to lying about his education and employment. And in January, authorities in the United States and Brazil revealed he is under investigation.
Democrats will make a hard run at the district represented by Santos, particularly since under its new lines, Biden would have beaten Trump by about 8 points.
House Democrats also will likely try to win Long Island-based districts held by freshmen Republican Reps. Anthony D'Esposito and Nick LaLota, along with the non-New York City area seats of first-term congressmen Michael Lawler (Lower Hudson Valley), Marc Molinaro (southeastern upstate New York), and Brandon Williams (the Syracuse and Utica areas).
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Across the country, House Democrats will seek to oust five Republicans in districts where in 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump. Duarte is a top target in the new San Joaquin Valley district he represents. So is Republican Rep. David Valadao in the southern Central Valley and eastern Bakersfield 22nd District, along with GOP Rep. Mike Garcia due south in the 27th District, taking in Lancaster, Palmdale, and Santa Clarita in northern Los Angeles County. Valadao and Garcia both represent districts where in 2020, Biden would have prevailed by double digits.
Depending on the fall 2024 political climate, Democrats may have further targets in Orange County, south of Los Angeles. Republican Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel in 2020 both won districts where Biden would have come out on top — though the president would have won by narrower margins than in areas further north.