Although voters narrowly gave Republicans control of the House of Representatives, the once-"Grand Old Party" was keen to throw its majority away. Despite the GOP's declasse candidate quality in the 2022 midterm elections, the coattails of Lee Zeldin's quixotic bid to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul in indigo New York provided Republicans a crucial four-seat margin in the House, carrying them to 222 seats at the start of 2023.

Then, after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy initiated the first impeachment inquiry hearing into Joe Biden while brokering a budget deal that would have slashed discretionary spending by 8% and provided the most robust border security reforms in generations, eight Republicans led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) decided to blow up McCarthy's speakership. And as indicated by the season of the GOP's suicide, by joining a unanimous quorum of Democrats to blow up the Californian's speakership, Gaetz and the crazy eight indeed blew up the Republican majority.

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After a grueling month of three failed floor votes and three failed candidates for speaker, Republicans settled on Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), a replacement-level politician who has since rubber-stamped just about everything Gaetz claimed to oppose. McCarthy, understandably at his limit with the clown show of Congress, resigned from office entirely, and amid a growing stack of indictments targeted at George Santos, Republicans joined Democrats to expel the New York Republican from Congress.

Two Republicans have since departed in quick succession: Bill Johnson of Ohio and Doug Lamborn of Colorado.

Now Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), who has already survived one murder attempt, is leaving the Beltway for a month for a stem cell transplant to fight his multiple myeloma. That leaves Republicans with exactly 218 seats and four vacancies up for reelection.

In the short run, Republicans cannot afford a single other death, defection, or electoral or legal scandal. In the long run, their problem may be even greater if you pay attention to the trend of the departures.

McCarthy represented a vast swath of California's Central Valley that encompassed the greater Bakersfield area and the southern Sierra. California's 20th Congressional District has been redistricted to give Republicans an edge, but Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has greenlit a stand-alone primary that could all come down to turnout in a very blue state.

Santos represented the North Shore of Long Island, which voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election. The next Republican contender to replace him likely won't have the coattails of a Zeldin-type figure to ride on.

Bill Johnson represents the greater Youngstown, Ohio, area, which was famously deadlocked into a 50-50 political split for decades until it swung hard to support Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 on the basis of its industrial base. Any successor to Johnson would have to replicate Trump's union-friendly brand of Republicanism.

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Lamborn has represented the greater Colorado Springs metro for nearly two decades. Republicans have consistently held control of the district, albeit by a margin that has waned from a 30-point lead at the turn of the century to fewer than 10 points in recent elections.

So Republicans aren't just on tenterhooks during their immediate wait for Scalise's recovery, but they're also facing four vacancies that are not safe seats. That's what the party gets for working with Democrats to blow up its own leadership!