With the Middle East, nothing is ever quite what it looks like. There are always side deals and cover stories, fake stances and false trails. The hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is not a “ceasefire” deal. The English language doesn’t have a word for what it is. It defies our definition because it defies the mentalities of Western war and diplomacy. The Islamists, however, do have a word for it, because it defines how they fight and, having been used by Mohammed in his campaigns, it is, like Britain’s Labour Party, sharia-compliant.
Like the hostage deal of November 2023, this is a hudna: a temporary tactical pause by mutual agreement. Its first phase is meant to last six weeks. Negotiations for the second phase are meant to start once the first phase reaches the 16-day mark. Inauguration Day falls a day after the pause begins. Hamas literally blew up the November 2023 hudna by launching rockets instead of negotiating the next phase. It is entirely possible that the first phase will not last the full 42 days. It is remotely possible that the second phase could begin. The third phase will never happen. Or rather, if it does happen, it won’t be what the third phase currently looks like.
The first phase allows everyone to claim a little victory. In the stunned aftermath of Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated three war aims: the return of the hostages, the restoration of deterrence, and the removal of Hamas from power. His fourth and fifth aims, breaking the Iranian regime’s evil grip on the region without breaking with a hostile Democratic administration, went unstated. He can claim to have advanced all five and retained Israel’s freedom of action. It suits both Netanyahu and President Donald Trump for it to look like all it took for Trump to rein in Israel’s mad dog was a whistle from Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff. But it probably didn’t happen like that.
Netanyahu got 105 of the 250 hostages back in November 2023 without succumbing to pressure from the Biden administration and the Europeans to declare a premature end to the war. Netanyahu’s resolve bought the Israel Defense Forces time to demolish Hamas. He then pivoted north and smashed a bigger Iranian client, Hezbollah. This precipitated the collapse of another Iranian client, the Assad tyranny in Syria. Israel has also denuded Iran’s air defenses. Iran’s nuclear sites are open to attack and the direct route via Syrian airspace is now open.
Not leaving anyone behind is foundational to the Israeli ethos and Israel’s citizen army. There are still 94 hostages in Gaza. The Israelis believe that 34 are dead. Thirty-three are supposed to be released in the first phase: women and children and elderly and sick people. This arithmetic of death leaves 27 living hostages, men of military age, for the second phase. It will be a miracle if they are released. The price will be appalling. The Israelis will have to release hundreds of terrorists who intend to kill again. Is it worth it? Yes, to reaffirm that no one gets left behind. Yes, if Israel continues to fight Hamas. No, if the terrorists are allowed to rebuild and kill again.
Hamas will claim a little victory. The Palestinians are big on sumud, steadfastness. This is the dumbest possible strategy for fighting the Jews, who are the all-time world-historical champions of sumud and literally wrote the Book of Books on the subject. Yet, as they keep showing, the Palestinians can wreak pain as they destroy themselves. The festival of barbarity that began with the celebration of mass murder will end with the mass celebration of the release of more murderers. That tells us everything we need to know about where the good and evil are in this conflict. Also revealing is which third-party country takes in the released terrorists. Watch for which one it is. Its government will claim to be America’s friend, but it is an enemy of humanity.
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The bigger winner among the Palestinian factions will be Fatah, which controls Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) and the sink of two-faced corruption that is our nominal ally, the Palestinian Authority. Their big win may turn into a big defeat. Hamas is still the rising power in the West Bank. The third phase includes returning a “reformed” Palestinian Authority to Gaza under international supervision. The Israelis are supposed to grant this and a Palestinian state in return for three dozen corpses. It won’t happen.
What might happen once the hostage issue is resolved for good or evil was suggested by the biggest winner, President Donald Trump. When he claimed the credit for the “epic” deal, Trump said Gaza will never again become a “terrorist safe haven.” That means no Palestinian state worth its flag. The real prize, and Trump’s goal, is to “build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Abraham Accords.” As the Arabs say, “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.”