Time is ticking before the United States defaults on its national debt, and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is facing pressure on two fronts: one from the White House to make concessions on the GOP's debt ceiling bill and one from his own party to cut spending and avoid a looming debt crisis.
McCarthy and President Joe Biden are set to meet Monday afternoon to continue on-again, off-again negotiations to strike a budget compromise as June 1, the projected default date, grows closer. Hanging over the speaker's head is the growing frustration from Republicans who want to see their Limit, Save, and Grow Act passed.
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The bill has been touted as McCarthy's greatest success since taking the speaker's gavel, but resistance from his own party could put that success in jeopardy.
The speaker is struggling to find the support to pass a joint debt ceiling bill through the House, with anywhere from 20 to 40 Republicans expected to be a hard "no" unless the bill remains the same as when it was passed last month. This puts the speaker on track for an uphill battle to get at least 200 Republicans in favor of a new debt ceiling bill, as it took much effort from McCarthy to persuade some GOP lawmakers to approve the original bill in the first place.
The best-case scenario for McCarthy? Monday's negotiations between McCarthy and Biden result in a deal as early as Tuesday. McCarthy has insisted that he will adhere to the House's "72-hour rule" that allows members time to study and consider the bill before a vote. Following this path, a debate or vote would not likely come until next week.
June 1 is a little over a week away, so members would likely begin discussions next Monday. The Senate, which is set to be back in session after Memorial Day, would not receive legislation from a passed House bill at the earliest, May 29, with final passage of the vote on June 1 or 2. Stalling on raising the debt ceiling for a long period of time is projected to create severe financial consequences for the U.S.
The worst-case scenario for McCarthy, according to one report, could be a challenge to his speakership. Fox News's Chad Pergram reported that a source close to the negotiations told him McCarthy needs those 180 votes as a bare minimum to pass a bill through — if he doesn't, a conservative Republican could call for a motion to "vacate the chair" in a vote of no confidence in McCarthy's leadership.
Not only would this stall any progress made toward raising the debt ceiling, but it would also set McCarthy on track to protect a chair that he fought through 15 rounds in January to secure. Some Republicans who have expressed their concerns over the GOP's bill, such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Andy Biggs (R-AZ), are also the same lawmakers who held out against voting for McCarthy for speaker.
Republicans could vote to oust McCarthy for several reasons. Some could dislike the concessions made to the Democrats, while others who were not sold on the original bill will be pushed even further away from supporting McCarthy. Some more vocal, far-right House GOP members could see this as a large enough crack in the foundation to move against the speaker.
These scenarios put McCarthy in a conflicting position. He could continue to take a hard-line approach to negotiations with Biden and force the president to roll back some of his more left-leaning policies. The White House has appeared to be open to some provisions, such as rescinding unspent COVID-19 funds, implementing caps on spending, and some requirements on social safety programs.
However, Biden has drawn the line in the sand at the Inflation Reduction Act and other areas as nonstarters, and last week, he expressed that he was opposed to the GOP's plans to expand work rules for food aid.
“We’re witnessing a game of brinkmanship, and in this game, there is that constraint of not looking to be the one to be blamed for an eventual default and the implications,” Brian Marks, the executive director of the University of New Haven’s Entrepreneurship and Innovation Program, told the Washington Examiner.
Progressive lawmakers have expressed concern and vowed to push back if the bill does not align with their requirements for a "clean" debt ceiling bill. It is likely far-right lawmakers will use the same tactic, which could stir dissent on Capitol Hill should the bill come back to Republicans altered far more than they'd like.
Discourse is already stirring after GOP negotiators helping to create a deal walked out of debt ceiling talks with the White House on Friday, saying the meetings were "not productive."
McCarthy and Biden both said their conversation on Sunday was "productive" but that they are not close to an agreement.
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“He walked through some of the things that he's still looking at he's hearing from his members. I walked through things I'm looking at,” McCarthy said of his call with the president. “What I'm looking at are where our differences are and how could we solve those. And I felt that part was productive. But look, there's no agreement. We're still apart.”
The Washington Examiner has reached out to McCarthy for comment.