Senate majorities have eluded Republicans the past couple of election cycles. With a favorable 2024 map, GOP chances look much better next year.
Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, up from the previous congressional session’s 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties in Democrats’ favor. A bit over 14 months out from Election Day 2024, Republicans are positioned, if everything goes right, to win a 52-48 majority. Democrats, conversely, could hold the majority through another 50-50 tie, with Harris on hand to tip votes their way as the understudy to a reelected President Joe Biden.
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West Virginia is the most obvious pickup opportunity for Republicans. Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is favored for his party’s nomination over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) to run for the seat held by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) since late 2010. Manchin is a prominent party renegade, defying Democrats on key pieces of legislation and Biden administration nominations.
That’s no great surprise as the last statewide-elected Democrat in deep-red West Virginia, which favored defeated President Donald Trump over Biden 69%-30% in 2020. But Justice sports high approval ratings and would have the upper hand over longtime political rival Manchin, who hasn’t said if he’s running again.
In Montana, where Trump cruised over Biden 57% to 41%, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is seeking another six-year term for the seat he first won in 2006. Establishment Republicans are rallying around Tim Sheehy, a businessman and retired Navy SEAL, over Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who lost to Tester in 2018 when he was state treasurer. Tester has won a series of tough reelections, making the Montana Senate contest a test of whether his personal political brand holds up in a conservative-leaning state.
It’s a similar situation in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is seeking reelection. A populist liberal and staunch critic of free trade pacts, Brown was a House member for 14 years before beating an incumbent Republican in 2006 for the Senate seat he holds. Republicans think they have Brown’s number in a state Trump won by about 8 points in 2016 and 2020. GOP primary candidates include a pair of wealthy, possible campaign self-funders — state Sen. Matt Dolan, a part owner of the Cleveland Guardians, and auto dealer magnate Bernie Moreno. Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also seeking the Republican nomination.
Senate Republicans are making noises about being able to defeat Democratic incumbents in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while picking up an open Michigan seat. But Democrats, at this point, have the edge due to name recognition, candidate quality, states’ partisan leans, and other factors — factors that could shift several times before voters cast ballots in November 2024.
Senate Democrats’ only real possible pickup opportunity is in Texas, where they would love to beat party bogeyman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is Cruz’s likely Democratic opponent. Yet even his large fundraising hauls and shifting voter demographics in Texas likely won’t be enough. Though, as the Trump political era has proved, anything can happen.
The best scenario for Senate Democrats doesn’t involve the number of seats they can win but is the type of majority they could hold — one in which they could get rid of the chamber’s filibuster rule, effectively requiring 60 votes to pass legislation, rather than a bare majority of 51. Manchin has been a key holdout against ending the filibuster, which, even when Democrats held full control of Congress and the White House for the first two years of Biden’s presidency, blocked his party from enacting its full legislative wish list.
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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is also up for reelection in 2024. Sinema became an independent in December 2022 but still caucuses with Democrats. She hasn’t declared for reelection, but, assuming she runs again, she will face a tough opponent in Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). The Republican field is wide open, with defeated 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake making noises about running.
Democrats could effectively win by losing with Manchin no longer in the Senate since even the Republican pickup there would mean eliminating a filibuster-elimination opponent from their ranks. If Gallego can win statewide, along with Biden’s reelection, Democrats would have the barest majority, but a majority nonetheless, to change Senate rules in their favor.