Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been a source of stability in an increasingly chaotic party, sitting atop the GOP conference since 2007, but two recent high-profile health scares have provoked rare questions about the 81-year-old’s future.
Not among Republican senators, at least not publicly. But McConnell’s latest freezing incident — which came following a question about whether he planned to run for reelection in 2026 — is a cause for concern as the party looks to take back the Senate majority in next year’s elections.
TRUMP'S GOP SUPPORT HAS ONLY CLIMBED SINCE THE INDICTMENTS BEGAN
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) was absent from the upper chamber while he recovered from shingles. The same was true when Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) hospitalized for depression.
Their extended absences imperiled the Democrats’ narrow 51-49 majority, allowing Republicans to prevail on some votes and in Feinstein’s case stalling some judicial nominations.
But neither Feinstein nor Fetterman serve in leadership and a huge fight to avert a government shutdown looms the moment senators return to town from recess.
McConnell’s episodes have been explained as an unfortunate side effect of his concussion recovery, an injury he sustained in a fall earlier this year. But much about his condition remains unknown.
The Senate Republican leader spoke with his allies on Wednesday, including Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD), Republican Conference Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY), and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) — the three men who would be likeliest to succeed him if he stepped down from the top leadership spot.
They have all been publicly supportive of McConnell and his leadership throughout his health struggles.
“Nobody will cross him at this point,” a Republican strategist said. “Any succession plan would have to be handled with utmost deference and sensitivity."
First came a fall in March at a fundraiser in Washington, D.C., which kept McConnell away from the Senate for nearly six weeks. He has now twice frozen while speaking to reporters, the first time right before the August recess, attributing the spells to lightheadedness.
McConnell trounced Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) 37 to 10 in last year’s leadership election, though critics noted the double-digit defections. The two men appeared to be at odds over strategy for winning the Senate during the midterms. Democrats actually expanded their slim majority as McConnell signaled displeasure with the quality of some candidates in key races.
The speculation about McConnell comes as the once-powerful Republican establishment loses its grip over the party. GOP leaders were unable to stop Trump in the 2016 primaries. The former president leads the 2024 Republican race by more than 40 points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average.
Trump-backed Senate candidates routinely won primaries last year, though several subsequently blew winnable general elections. Republican leaders were poised to take a different approach to the primaries this year, much as McConnell finally intervened in 2014 after defeated Tea Party candidates kept Republicans in the minority following the 2010 and 2012 elections.
But on Wednesday it was revealed that Blake Masters, one of the failed 2022 Republican Senate candidates, moving toward another run in Arizona next year. This would potentially set up a primary battle with fellow Trump populist Kari Lake, who is coming off a loss in the governor’s race.
An uncompetitive nominee could prompt national Republicans to sit on their hands during the Arizona Senate race.
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) is weighing a primary challenge to the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s preferred pick to run against Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) will face Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) for the nomination to contest Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) seat.
McConnell has remained firmly in control of the Senate Republican conference as GOP House speakers have fallen, but not without cost to his national popularity.
The Kentucky Republican boasts the lowest favorability among an unpopular group of political leaders in both parties, according to a RealClearPolitics average. He is viewed favorably by just 19.8% while 58% hold an unfavorable opinion of him.
McConnell has broken with Trump after the two partnered in building a 6-3 conservative Supreme Court majority. Trump calls him the “old crow” — a relatively restrained insult compared to his sharply personal attacks on McConnell's wife Elaine Chao — and has suggested Democrats “have something” on him. McConnell is the most senior Republican leader to blame Trump for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol taking place.
"He's a master tactician, a legend," a second Republican strategist said. "But nothing lasts forever."
The senator’s difficulties also renew public discontent with an aging political leadership class. McConnell has served in the Senate since Ronald Reagan was president.
President Joe Biden will turn 81 later this year. He is seeking reelection and would be 86 at the end of a second term. Former President Donald Trump, 77, is the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination to challenge Biden. House Democrats replaced their octogenarian-heavy leadership team, headed by 83-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), at the beginning of the year.
“I certainly don’t want to be one of these people that stay in Washington forever and get old,” Rep. James Comer (R-KY) told NBC News before McConnell’s second freeze. “I think that’s not a good business model.”
In the same interview, Comer was asked about running for senator or governor at some point. “I can’t predict the future,” he replied.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Senators come back from recess next week with a deadline for funding the federal government at the end of the month.
All eyes will be on McConnell.