The U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari governments have worked extensively for months to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a proposal that would halt Israel’s war in exchange for the release of the hostages Hamas took on Oct. 7.
The intermediary governments have met with one another, as well as with leaders from each side, repeatedly trying to work out the contours of an agreement that would be amenable to both sides, but their efforts have been unsuccessful since the first ceasefire agreement ended in late November.
There would be several factors in any Israeli-Hamas agreement. First, it would include a cessation of fighting in Gaza for a matter of weeks, which would allow for desperately needed humanitarian aid to travel more safely and easily to civilians in need. U.S. officials have previously said they would like a deal to stop the war for six weeks.
CIA Director Bill Burns traveled to Cairo, Egypt, last weekend to share a new U.S. proposal with its Egyptian and Qatari counterparts. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters that Burns’s talks were a “marathon session that went late into the night” on Sunday, and Sullivan said he urged Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed al Thani to “secure an answer from [Hamas] as soon as possible.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the proposal as “very serious” on Monday, saying it “should be accepted.”
“Hamas could move forward with this immediately and get a ceasefire that would benefit people throughout Gaza as well as, of course, get the hostages home,” he said. “I think the fact that it continues to not say yes is a reflection of what it really thinks about the people of Gaza, which is not much at all.”
Qatari Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Majed al Ansari said his optimism about a deal has grown in recent days.
“We are by no means at the last stretch of these talks, but if you ask me if I am more optimistic today than I was a couple of days ago, then I would say yes,” Ansari told the BBC. “I can’t go into the details of these proposals, but I can tell you it bridges the gap in a way that hasn’t been done in the last couple of months.”
This isn’t the first time Ansari, or other involved officials, have expressed optimism about a deal, even though one has yet to come to fruition. The relevant governments had sought to get a deal in place before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ended this week.
Biden said at the time that “there has gotta be a ceasefire” before Ramadan because it “could be very, very dangerous” without one. He said then that the fate of a deal was in the “hands of Hamas.” But that manufactured deadline came and went without a deal, demonstrating the difficulty in getting such a deal across the finish line.
Hamas kidnapped roughly 253 people during the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, though some of those victims were killed that day during the attack. About half of those hostages were released during a weeklong ceasefire deal in late November.
There are believed to be approximately 130 hostages still held in Gaza, 11 of whom are foreign nationals, an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson told Newsweek. IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in February that more than 30 of the hostages are dead.
The U.S. proposed deal calls for the release of 40 of the remaining hostages, including women, men over 50 years old, and men who are younger but in need of medical attention, during the initial stoppage of fighting. But Hamas has reportedly told negotiators it doesn’t have 40 hostages who meet these requirements, according to CNN. The report noted that Israeli officials believe Hamas should make up the difference with hostages who don’t meet that requirement.
Like in the first ceasefire deal, Hamas is looking for Israel to release Palestinians held in Israeli prisons predating the war as a part of the deal. During the initial ceasefire, Israel released three Palestinians for every Israeli who was released. Hamas will likely seek to get senior militants out of Israeli prisons in a deal.
The hostages are believed to be held separately, and in some cases, it’s believed that Hamas has handed off some of them to other terrorist groups in the strip. The lack of a central location for hostages likely makes it more difficult for the terrorist group to ascertain which hostages are still alive.
Hamas considers fighting-aged men, who are believed to make up the majority of the remaining hostages, more valuable and is likely to try to get additional concessions for their release.
Many of the hostages were kidnapped from their homes in the communities near the Israeli-Gaza border, while others were taken from the Nova music festival, where Hamas fighters killed hundreds of civilians.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to hostage deals prior to the Oct. 7 attack and subsequent war. In 2011, the Israelis agreed to release 1,027 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons in exchange for the return of one IDF soldier named Gilad Shalit, who had been held in Gaza for five years by the time the deal was agreed upon and executed.
The five American hostages believed to still be alive and in captivity are Edan Alexander, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Omer Neutra, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, and Keith Siegel. Some family members met with Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House on Tuesday. Itay Chen, a 19-year-old Israeli soldier with dual Israeli-U.S. nationality, was confirmed dead last month.
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“We are waiting now and the world waits for Hamas to get to yes [on a hostage deal],” said Jonathan Dekel-Chen, whose son was taken hostage on Oct. 7. “It is in their court.”
“The Vice President underscored that President Biden and she have no higher priority than reuniting the hostages with their loved ones,” a readout of the meeting from the White House said. “She also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to bring home the remains of those who have been tragically confirmed to be deceased.”