Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley returned to her home state Monday, re-staking her claim in South Carolina following former President Donald Trump's appearance at the annual Palmetto Bowl with Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC).
Trump attended the University of South Carolina vs. Clemson University rivalry football game Saturday when Haley's alma mater, the Clemson Tigers, bested the Gamecocks. Trump was greeted by applause and cheers at Williams-Brice Stadium and some booing, according to footage outside the game. The trip was even more notable given Trump's relatively infrequent campaign stops, particularly in the Palmetto State.
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Haley poked fun at Trump's appearance on the University of South Carolina campus, noting that the home team ultimately lost to her former school, where she is on the board of trustees. “How’d it work out for the Gamecocks having Trump show up?” she asked during a Bluffton, South Carolina, campaign rally. Trump did not take sides in the matchup, with his campaign saying he just hoped to see a good game.
Haley's Monday rally was her first in South Carolina since Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dropped out of the presidential primary race. Videos were shared on social media before the rally, showing a packed venue and supporters lined up to see Haley.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), an endorser of Haley, reportedly said the fire marshal cut off capacity to the venue, leaving several supporters to watch the event on screens outside.
The 2,500-person crowd is the largest Haley has drawn to date, even surpassing the crowd of 2,000 who gathered for her campaign launch nine months ago, per the Post and Courier.
While it seems Haley's popularity is growing in her home state, among other places, Trump still holds a double-digit lead over anyone else in the primary race. According to recent polling from South Carolina's Winthrop University, more than half of Republican registered voters, 52%, still support Trump for the nomination with three months until the primary.
Haley's support in South Carolina, while higher than her own national numbers and those of DeSantis, is a distant second at 17%.
Even though Trump maintains a significant lead, the former ambassador has seen a nationwide upward trend in her polling numbers since the first Republican National Committee primary debate in August. And she's managed to continue the initial momentum by delivering strong performances in both the second and third debates as well.
She's also benefited from the fact that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) remains Trump's main Republican target. As Trump's campaign and super PAC continue to hit the Florida governor, Haley has been able to make her pitch to voters without such negative attention.
Haley has further avoided denouncing the former president. "I believe President Trump was the right president at the right time," she reiterated Monday. "I was proud to serve America in his administration. And I agree with a lot of his policies."
Her argument to voters, however, is that "chaos follows him." According to Haley, the country can't afford to "be sitting in chaos once again."
Haley's polling stature is particularly strong in New Hampshire, where she is second to Trump, who still holds a commanding lead.
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who has yet to endorse in the Republican primary, said Haley is well positioned for a potential win in South Carolina's late February primary. If the former ambassador manages to have a "strong showing in Iowa," followed by a win in New Hampshire, "that would give her a lot of momentum going into South Carolina," he said.
University of South Carolina political scientist David Darmofal echoed Sununu, explaining, "The hope for either Gov. DeSantis or former Gov. Haley is to have a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire and use that to gain momentum for subsequent contests like South Carolina."
But, he said, Trump still boasts significant leads in those first two states, and "it would seem like his polling lead is less likely to decline than would that of a similar front-runner who is a less well-known commodity."
According to Republican strategist John Feehery, the way for Haley to have a real chance in any of the nominating contests is to target DeSantis. "If she could knock him out in South Carolina, then she could be last one standing against Trump everywhere else," he said.
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This may prove difficult, though, as DeSantis is putting most of his political might behind his effort in Iowa. His campaign even opened two Iowa headquarters as it focuses resources on the state.
In the most recent Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll from October, Trump still led the Republican pack, while DeSantis and Haley were tied for second. However, since the poll was published, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) endorsed DeSantis in a move that could bolster his support.