As the House continues to try and crank out appropriations bills ahead of the Sept. 30 deadline to fund the federal government, a shutdown looms, with House Republican Conference members fighting over how much to spend in the next fiscal year.
Congress is running out of time to pass the appropriations bills and avoid a shutdown. But with the House struggling to pass its appropriations bills and resistance on the Right to a continuing resolution, a short-term stopgap measure to fund the government at the previous year's rate, a shutdown becomes more likely by the day.
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Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), a senior appropriator and the chairman of the Rules Committee, said he is “very much” concerned about a shutdown, especially in a slim 222-213 majority in which each vote matters. However, a wide array of outstanding demands by the most outspoken House conservatives complicates matters.
A big holdup among conservatives is the lack of a commitment to a top-line spending number from House leadership, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.
But this is baffling to some members who say the top line for the appropriations bills is already below what was set in an agreement to raise the nation's debt ceiling, or borrowing capacity, between the Republican majority House, Democratic-controlled Senate, and President Joe Biden. Still, conservatives want the top-line spending level lower and to make a commitment to one specific number.
“I will tell you, you can't let the forest get in the way of the trees,” Cole said. “Right now, we need to be dealing with one tree at a time.”
While the proposed spending ceiling consistently thrown around by conservatives is $1.471 trillion, House leadership has not committed to that level.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said he has been working with conservatives for more than two months on a top-line spending number and that their first goal is ensuring the Senate doesn’t try to force a catchall spending bill, an "omnibus" in Capitol Hill parlance, to avoid a government shutdown.
When asked about the top-line spending number he is committed to, McCarthy told reporters he is “committed to save as much money as we possibly can.”
Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA), McCarthy's top lieutenant in the debt ceiling negotiations, said House Republican leadership is mindful of conservatives' concerns over spending.
"He is continuing to work with members of the conference to identify additional opportunities for savings and is certainly open to any other savings that result in 218 votes," Graves told the Washington Examiner.
Then, there are the policy demands.
Many conservatives, such as Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), are demanding the enactment of measures to secure the U.S. border with Mexico, specifically those in H.R. 2, the House’s border security legislation passed earlier this year, to continue funding the government.
Roy has been adamant he will not support any continuing resolution unless the border is dealt with. Nor would Roy support some of the 12 appropriations bills, which, together, fund the federal government.
“Do the job that we need to do to secure the border of the United States and get our government to focus where it needs to focus," Roy said. "Then come talk to me about whether or not there's a short-term CR that can be married with policies that are going to force Biden to do his job.”
A short-term continuing resolution is another matter McCarthy faces when it comes to keeping the government funded. McCarthy said he expects one will be necessary to give the House more time to negotiate with the Senate and come out with some conservative priorities they can tout as wins.
On the one hand, there is little support for a short-term continuing resolution among his right fringe, even if it has some policy riders attached. Some members are demanding the full passage of H.R. 2 or extensive cuts in a continuing resolution that just couldn’t pass the Senate.
On the other hand, a clean continuing resolution could pass, but it could imperil McCarthy's speakership.
Cole said he thinks a clean continuing resolution would pass in “a heartbeat,” although there could be a “real risk” for the speaker.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) promised that if McCarthy puts a clean continuing resolution on the floor, he will make a motion to vacate the chair. This would call a vote to oust McCarthy as speaker, one on which he could only lose a few votes.
“If Kevin McCarthy puts a continuing resolution on the floor, it's going to be shot, chaser. Continuing resolution, motion to vacate. So yes, this month is quite dispositive,” Gaetz told reporters.
With all this uncertainty and pushback against individual appropriations bills and a continuing resolution, a shutdown looks ever more likely.
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Further complicating matters for House Republican leadership is that some of its members don't see a shutdown as all that bad, giving them outsize leverage in negotiations.
“I’m pretty open about the fact that we shouldn't fear a government shutdown,” Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) said. “And if that's what's necessary to force spending cuts, then we should utilize that.”