Republicans will not be able to meet their budget target without making large cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, the Congressional Budget Office said.

In a budget blueprint adopted last week, House Republicans instructed the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which is responsible for federal healthcare spending, to cut funding by $880 billion.

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However, the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan in-house think tank that oversees the process, said in a letter outlining the funding figures that the committee only oversees a total of $581 billion in spending apart from Medicare and Medicaid. Even if they cut everything they oversee besides those programs, the cuts would still come $299 billion short of the $880 billion target.

When just Medicare is set aside, the total funding under the committee’s jurisdiction is $8.8 trillion over 10 years. Medicaid accounts for $8.2 trillion of that, or 93%.

This could derail Republicans’ cost-cutting plans in the narrowly divided House. Their budget proposal passed by a slim margin after prolonged negotiations between hard-line conservatives pushing for deeper cuts and swing-district Republicans worried about voter backlash over reductions to popular insurance programs.

The letter outlining the figures was sent in response to inquiries from Reps. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) who is the ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Brendan Boyle (D-PA), who is the  ranking member of the Budget Committee.

“This letter from CBO confirms what we’ve been saying all along: the math doesn’t work without devastating Medicaid cuts,” Pallone said Wednesday in a statement. “Republicans know their spin is a lie, and the truth is they have no problem taking health care away from millions of Americans so that the rich can get richer and pay less in taxes than they already do.” 

Trump has said the GOP should not cut benefits for Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. Those three programs are the three largest social safety net programs in the government, which together accounted for roughly $3.2 trillion of the country’s $6.75 trillion of total spending in the 2024 fiscal year. The president did not mention these items during his joint address to Congress earlier this week. 

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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has countered the president and said Medicaid is on the table for spending cuts. Earlier this week, he said “Medicaid is hugely problematic,” and repeated the Trump administration’s claim that there is rampant “waste, fraud, and abuse” in the federal government.

More than 60 million rely on each program for medical coverage, retirement funds, and unemployment funds caused by disability.