Republicans hold a narrow advantage with older voters, according to a new survey of competitive House districts, though retirement-age voters on average are breaking for the Democrats.
A generic Republican candidate and a generic Democrat are tied at 45% in a hypothetical matchup, according to polling from AARP released on Thursday, suggesting the fight over control of the House will be close. However, voters ages 50 and older favored Republicans by 4 percentage points, 48% to 44%.
The GOP narrowly controls the House, though Democrats are itching to take back control. The senior voting bloc is not monolithic, Bob Ward, whose polling company Fabrizio Ward helped conduct the survey, stressed in a briefing to reporters.
Voters ages 50-64 are the most Republican leaning of the older voters surveyed. The cohort supported the GOP by 13 percentage points against Democrats. By comparison, voters ages 65 and older supported Democrats by 5 percentage points.
“That is a phenomenon that’s playing out here in these most competitive House districts, but it’s something we’re seeing in all the battleground states as well,” Ward said of the data.
As Democrats struggle to reengage younger voters, the senior vote, which tends to participate in congressional and presidential elections at higher levels, will be even more crucial.
Hypothetical Democrats are running far ahead of President Joe Biden, according to the AARP survey. Biden garners 37% of the vote in the districts, whereas the generic Democrat receives 45% of the vote.
The president’s support is also underwater with younger voters, which he’ll need to secure reelection in November. He won voters under 50 in the 2020 matchup against former President Donald Trump. According to the poll, Biden is a net 15 points behind a generic Democrat among voters 18 to 34 and 9 points behind voters 35-49.
“Frankly, what we’ve seen in our other battleground state polls is there’s not a Democrat problem. There is a Biden problem,” Ward said bluntly.
At the presidential level, Trump bests Biden 42% to 37% among voters ages 18 and above, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling 11%. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump narrowly leads Biden, 47% to 45%.
Among voters ages 50 and older, Trump also leads Biden, 45% to 41%, while Biden leads Trump by 5 percentage points among voters 65 and older. In the Republican-leaning cohort of voters ages 50-64, Trump beats Biden by 13 percentage points.
Immigration and border security are among the biggest issues driving voters ages 50 and above, with 57% of Republicans who said it was their first or second choice. Just 10% of Democrats said the same. Abortion and threats to democracy also remain top issues for Democrats.
Meanwhile, the economy and jobs, inflation, and Social Security are the top or second most important issues for 54% of voters. “While slightly higher among Republicans, it is the highest issue cluster across the political spectrum, among Republicans, among independents, and among Democrats,” Ward added.
Republicans beat Democrats by a net 19 percentage points on those issues, a worrying sign for Biden’s reelection chances.
Another important issue affecting the senior vote is family caregiving, as 30% of voters ages 50 and older consider themselves family caregivers, as do 40% of older Hispanic voters and 37% of older black voters.
These voters, irrespective of party affiliation, overwhelmingly said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who provides support to family caregivers to allow seniors to live independently at home (80%) or provide a tax credit to family caregivers to help cover caregiving costs (74%).
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“These voters who are prioritizing this issue, they are really competitive right now,” Jeff Liszt, a pollster with Impact Research, which conducted the survey, said. “They are tied on the presidential ballot, on the congressional ballot. They’re virtually tied; it’s just a 1-point advantage for Democrats. So again, it’s a really important issue on which candidates need to compete.”
The poll surveyed 2,324 likely voters between June 3-9 and has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.