Some Republicans’ willingness to break with President-elect Donald Trump during the spending bill fight late last year is an early indication of the challenges he will face in getting a massive tax bill through the House.
This past year closed out with a splashy fight over funding the government. Trump pressed Republicans in the House to vote for a continuing resolution that included an increase to the debt limit, but that proposal failed on the floor after a notable chunk of members in his own party — concerned about rising debts and deficits — pushed back and voted against the measure.
That dissent could be a harbinger of Republican defections over certain items included or not included in a coming bill to extend expiring provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Notably, the coming tax bill might end up further adding to debts and deficits depending on how it is structured and what is included.
Outgoing Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) told the Washington Examiner that the independence some members have had this past four years, coupled with some members with “principled positions,” is “crashing headfirst into the Trump mandate.”
Still, Molinaro predicted that members would end up coming together to deliver on the tax legislation.
“We are different than the Democrats. We have cultivated independence, and the incoming president has a strong capacity to move people — along with a mandate,” he said.
Trump won the November election by a greater margin than most analysts anticipated, something that some members see as evidence that the party should fall in line behind him as much as possible. However, spending and debt concerns for some conservative members could end up outweighing absolute fealty to Trump on the coming tax legislation.
Former Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY) said Republican margins in the House are such that GOP leadership can only afford to lose a few votes.
“With this slim of a majority, it’s going to be difficult, even with Trump at the helm,” Reed told the Washington Examiner. “Because you have such dynamics in the conference that has not been solidified yet.”
“So it is not smooth sailing to the solution for the tax bill come 2025,” the former congressman added.
Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, said the debate over spending, debts, and deficits that played out late last year will come to the fore again with the tax legislation.
“It does raise a big question to what extent will spending play a role here to offset some or all of the tax cuts we may see, and if there will be any red lines among Republicans who are wanting to see that as a priority for supporting the other tax changes,” Watson said. “And so I think that’s just a preview of the dynamic we may see.”
Peter Loge, director of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, has a long background in politics, including working in the House and Senate. Loge told the Washington Examiner that he thinks Trump might be surprised that Republican House members don’t immediately fall in line on the tax legislation and other initiatives.
“The Republicans in the House have a majority that could fit on a motorcycle with a sidecar,” he said. “And you know, members of the House of Representatives have their own ideas about how things should run, and most Republicans will probably mostly agree with Trump — but ‘most’ isn’t ‘always,’ and given the slim majorities, ‘most’ may not get it done much of the time.”
Loge said while Trump’s win in November was bigger than anticipated, members of the House are elected by voters in their specific districts and some of the Republican districts are very different from others.
“They don’t represent the whole country the way President Trump does, and they’re beholden to their constituents,” he said. “They got elected based on certain policies and campaign promises, and the way they get reelected is by trying to keep those promises — and that will often align with the president if you’re in the same party, but sometimes it does not.”
One clear example of where Republicans might disagree in the coming tax negotiations is on changes to the cap on state and local tax deductions, better known as the SALT cap.
Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act included a $10,000 cap on SALT deductions, and lawmakers in high-tax jurisdictions such as New York and California have been adamant about raising or eliminating that cap.
Some lawmakers, such as Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY), are adamant that they will not vote for the reconciliation legislation unless it significantly raises or eliminates the cap. LaLota said doubling it to $20,000 wouldn’t be enough to earn his vote.
However, if Trump pushes for a big increase of the SALT cap — something budget experts say largely benefits the wealthy — he could lose votes from fiscal conservatives who have long been opposed to any SALT deductions.
House Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee Chairman Mike Kelly (R-PA), who has been in Congress since 2011 and was on Ways and Means when the Trump tax cuts were first negotiated in 2017, said Republicans will have a greater challenge enacting them this time around.
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Kelly recently spoke to the Washington Examiner and pointed out that during the 2017 tax fight, a chunk of GOP lawmakers defected and voted against the bill, and despite that, it still passed. The party doesn’t have that luxury in 2025.
“This time, we can’t do that,” Kelly said. “We can’t lose hardly anybody if we’re going to succeed with this, so it’s going to take a lot of getting up early and going to school and having all types of meetings and briefings where people can see where this leads.”