Republicans missed the mark in the 2022 midterm elections with a key voting bloc, but they could make up for lost ground heading into 2024.
In 2022, Democrats were successful in winning swing Latino voters by significant margins. In an Equis 2022 voter survey of 12 battleground states, Democrats won 68% of swing Latino voters compared to Republicans' 24% — an outcome attributed to perceived extremism within the GOP.
BIDEN GIVES TRUMP THE SILENT TREATMENT ON INDICTMENT, BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Ahead of the 2024 election, however, polling indicates that Latino voters may be more open to voting for a GOP nominee over President Joe Biden. Adding in drop-off voters — who voted in 2018 and 2020 but not 2022 — is projected to give Republicans a 13-point advantage in 2024.
An Equis analysis found that, among those who voted in 2020, 54% would select a "generic Republican" compared to the 34% who would support Biden in the next cycle.
The odds of Republicans electing a "generic" Republican in 2024 is slim, according to Cook Political Report, considering former President Donald Trump remains the front-runner in recent polling. It is likely that Biden and Trump will face each other in the general election.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in 11 battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin — by 15 points, per the Equis data. In 2022, Democratic candidates won Latino voters in these states by 13 points. A December post-midterm survey showed Biden with just an 8-point lead over Trump with Latino voters.
Given how narrow the margins were in states such as Arizona and Nevada in 2020, and again in multiple races in 2022, just a 7-point shift among Latinos in favor of the GOP in 2024 could flip both states to red in 2024.
However, the GOP will have to be strategic when it comes to picking its candidates in both state and presidential races. Many attributed Republicans' lackluster performance in 2022 to far-right candidates supported by Trump, alienating swing voters and securing wins for Democrats.
The Equis analysis found that Latino voters who trusted Republicans to fix inflation, for example, thought Democrats "don't always deliver on their promises, but they still trusted Democrats to look out for them and thought Republicans were extreme," according to Equis co-founder Carlos Odio.
Republicans ultimately underperformed with Hispanic voters in most battleground states in 2022, with the exception of Florida. Latino voters helped Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) win reelection with 59% of the overall vote and 58% of the Latino vote, specifically — a jump from 2018 when DeSantis won with 44% of the Latino vote. His victory in Miami-Dade County, a predominately Hispanic community, was the first for the GOP since 2002.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
To sway more Latino voters, particularly swing voters or those who do not vote, GOP candidates will need to outpace Democrats in outreach and press campaigns. Democrats tend to engage with non-voters toward the end of a cycle, while Republicans could begin making inroads with these voters early on.
In Nevada in 2022, Republican Adam Laxalt became a recognizable figure due to Republicans' spending on Spanish-language ad campaigns, according to Equis research. However, Democrats began spending money on Spanish-language TV campaigns for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in March 2022, while Laxalt and his allies did not begin until late summer.