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Barnini Chakraborty, Senior Investigations Reporter


NextImg:G20 summit: Five burning questions as Biden fills void left by Xi and Putin

The heads of the world's largest economies will meet in India this weekend for the G20 leaders' summit, an intergovernmental forum founded 24 years ago and billed as one of the most high-profile geopolitical assemblies in the world. 

It is the first time the South Asian country is hosting the summit, which could elevate India's status among major global players. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hoping the two-day event will burnish his credentials as he seeks a third term next year.

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Those attending the conference in New Delhi include President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, it's the two leaders not coming, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who have generated the most global buzz.

Putin, locked in a war with Ukraine, is subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. Though India is not a signatory to the Rome Statute and would not be forced to arrest the world leader, Putin has decided to sit out, though the Kremlin claims he can't come because of a scheduling conflict.  

Xi's absence is more complicated, but his no-show could pave the way for India to gain ground following Beijing's recent escalations in the South China Sea and ramped-up anti-American rhetoric.

The main theme for this year's summit is sustainable development, but the conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions with China are also expected to be discussed.

Here are five burning questions about this year's G20.

1. Why isn't Xi Jinping going?

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands.

There are several theories floating around as to why Xi isn't attending the summit.

Some believe it's a snub intended to steal the spotlight from the host country. Others believe Xi is busy with domestic troubles, including widespread flooding and anger over his government's stunted response to it, as well as worsening economic problems. 

"He has a lot of domestic issues to deal with, and like Mao perhaps he now prefers to send his premier to most overseas meetings while he stays home to deal with domestic issues and grant audiences to visiting foreign dignitaries," Sinocism writer and analyst Bill Bishop wrote.

Xi's decision to stay home could also be to avoid uncomfortable face-to-face conversations with several world leaders who are engaged in territorial disputes with China, including the host country and Japan.

Xi's presence "would have meant normalizing relations without making any sincere effort to resolve the border crises," Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research, told the New York Times.

China rolled out a new national map a few weeks ago that misrepresents Beijing's territorial borders by claiming 90% of the South China Sea, one of the world's most contested waterways, as well as India's northeastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau.

"Both the act and the timing underline the harsh reality that China is inflexible about its revisionist claims and that it is unlikely to stop," Happymon Jacob, a professor at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told the Washington Post.

After India said it lodged a "strong protest" over the map through diplomatic channels, China responded by telling India to "stay calm" and refrain from "overinterpreting" the matter.

Another reason for Xi missing the meeting could be to show solidarity with Putin. Xi has been under intense pressure to condemn Putin's war in Ukraine, something he has not done.

2. What does that mean for the United States and India?

Xi's decision to skip the leadership summit is being billed by Indian officials as a sign of India's rise. 

President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi talk during the G20 leaders' summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022.

"As far as China is concerned, they often show a degree of petulance," Bharatiya Janata Party Vice President Baijayant Jay Panda told Reuters. "It may be hard for them to swallow that for four decades they were the fastest growing economy and now it is India." 

While Xi's absence denies Biden a face-to-face, it also presents a rare opportunity to push U.S.-led initiatives that would offer an alternative to Beijing's Belt and Road project, which provides loans to emerging countries to build up their infrastructure, albeit with Chinese strings attached.

Biden will also be able to pitch measures that condemn Russia's war with Ukraine, of which the U.S. is the biggest backer.

3. Is there a joint infrastructure deal in the works?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomes President Joe Biden to Al-Salam Palace in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, July 15, 2022.

Biden, Modi, and the leaders from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may ink a deal this weekend on a massive project that would connect Gulf and Arab countries through a network of railways that would also connect to India through seaports, according to Axios.

A sweeping multinational port and rail deal would go a long way to counter China's Belt and Road initiatives and could help reduce shipping times and costs related to trade.

Israel could also reportedly become a part of the project and increase its reach to Europe if it would normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. 

4. Will the African Union be invited into the tent?

Reports have surfaced that the G20 will agree to grant the 55-member African Union permanent membership status, with the decision announced this weekend.

African Union Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat addresses delegates during the closing session of the Africa Climate Summit at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre in Nairobi, Kenya, Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023.

The move gives the AU the same status as the European Union and is part of a larger effort to give African countries more say on global matters such as climate change.

The proposal to have the AU join the fold was introduced by Modi, supported by the U.S., and won support on Friday from the EU. Currently, South Africa is the only G20 member from the continent. 

"I look forward to welcoming the AU as a permanent member of the G20," European Council President Charles Michel said in New Delhi on Friday.

The AU was created in 2002. It has a GDP of $3 trillion and represents 1.4 billion people.

5. Is India going to announce a name change?

A state-issued dinner invitation to take place on the sidelines of the summit that refers to India as Bharat has fueled speculation the country is considering changing its name as part of a campaign to shed its colonial ties.

G20 Summit sherpa Amitabh Kant, center, addresses a press conference at the International Media Center ahead of the summit in New Delhi, India, Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.

While Modi has worked consistently to remove any lingering symbols of British rule since he was sworn in as India's 14th prime minister in 2014, changing India's name would be the biggest and boldest move.

The South Asian nation of 1.4 billion people is known domestically and internationally as India and Bharat, though India is most commonly used.

Bharat is an ancient Sanskrit word many historians believe dates back to early Hindu texts. The word also means India in Hindi, one of the many languages spoken in the country.

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There have been calls by some in government to shed "India" and refer to it as "Bharat," though others, such as opposition lawmaker Shashi Tharoor, have warned against it, calling a name change "foolish" and claiming "India" has "an incalculable brand value built up over centuries" that is recognized internationally.

The government has called a special session of Parliament for Sept. 18-22, in which it is rumored to be taking up the name change matter, India Today reported.