FROM ‘HE’S CRASHING THE ECONOMY’ TO ‘IT’S A MIRAGE.’ Go back three months, when the government released gross domestic product numbers for the first quarter of 2025. The report was that GDP fell 0.3% in the first quarter, later revised to 0.5%. That would have been disturbing except for the explanation: In anticipation of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs, many businesses increased their imports to stockpile as much as possible before the tariffs took effect. Those imports were essentially subtracted from GDP, resulting in the contraction.
But the president’s opponents did not care about such nuance. For Democrats and their allies in the press, the first quarter GDP numbers were an opportunity to attack, attack, attack. From the newsletter on April 30:
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You will not be shocked that Democrats jumped on the news to declare that President Donald Trump has crashed the economy in just 100 days. (The GDP report included the last few weeks of the Biden administration.) “A crashing economy heading toward a RECESSION,” tweeted House Democrats. “Crashing the economy,” said House Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. “Crashing the economy,” said Trump impeacher Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin.
That was then. Now, the government has just released GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2025, and they show the economy grew at a healthy annual rate of 3.0% during that time. It was a good number.
So what about Trump crashing the economy? If he was doing that in April, surely it would be crashed by now, or at least seriously dinged up, wouldn’t it? This time around, Democrats realized there was no way to interpret 3.0% economic growth as “crashing” the economy. That was a bit too much even for the most aggressive Trump critic.
So what to say? It was also a bit too much to allege that the numbers were fake — after all, they were produced using the same methods the Commerce Department always uses to come up with GDP figures.
But how about saying the GDP numbers just weren’t what they appeared to be? Yes — that might work. Maybe say the 3.0 figure, which appears to show solid economic growth, is really a “mirage.” “While the Trump administration will try to wave rosy headlines about the second quarter number,” Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer said Wednesday, “today’s GDP number is, in fact, a mirage.”
Is that true? First of all, there’s no doubt that an annual GDP growth of 3.0% is a good report. But, just as the first quarter figure was low because of tariff-related increased imports, so the second quarter figure was high because of tariff-related decreased imports. So you can mentally take a little off the top. But remember that, even taking into account a drop in imports, the prediction for second quarter GDP was 2.3% — and then it came in at 3.0%. So it is good news.
And it is not a mirage. And it is not crashing the economy. Obviously, Democrats want to diminish President Trump’s accomplishments in any way they can. That includes talking down the economy. But when they say the president is crashing the economy, or that economic growth is a mirage, they only make themselves look less credible.