French elections on Sunday led to a strong right-wing victory for spots in the European Union Parliament. The EU Parliament consists of 720 delegates from 27 nations. The Left, Center, and Green parties are still set to maintain their overall majority, but by a smaller margin. The French vote is seen as an expression of distaste for the leadership of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party, which lost handily.
The EU election result undermines public perception of Macron’s political strength and thus his ability to drive policy. Rather than allow that perception to linger, Macron called for snap elections on June 30 and July 7 for the lower house of France’s own Parliament (its internal assembly, as opposed to the continentwide EU Parliament). It’s a gamble: If the elections go badly for Macron’s party, he could effectively become a lame-duck president, unable to implement his domestic policy agenda.
Early projections look bad for Macron’s Renaissance Party. It is polling at only half of the 31% support for the hard-right party National Rally, which is the latter’s highest-ever score. Marine Le Pen, the leader of National Rally, posted on X that “when the people vote, the people win.”
Macron’s gamble probably will prove unwise. Exit polls from the EU elections show significant voter anger with Macron’s handling of immigration and the cost of living. While Le Pen’s National Rally is unlikely to secure an outright majority in the snap election, its numbers could create a “hung parliament” with no party having workable control. Macron would then need to make alliances, and perhaps even appoint a prime minister from National Rally as a concession to form a coalition government. Macron’s relatively lenient immigration policy probably would be changed into something far more restrictive.
This is all before the July 26 start to the Olympics. International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach issued a statement declaring that the election would not affect preparations for the Games. Still, the elections’ close juxtaposition with the Olympics makes Macron look reckless. He is about to show France to the world. Now, it might be a France in political turmoil, still trying to sort out a hung Parliament caused by those elections. As it is, the looming elections already have helped destabilize the euro, causing a drop to monthly lows.
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The French Right has shown its willingness to attack problems in contrast to Macron’s left-leaning pontifications devoid of solutions. The French public declared its willingness to support candidates who solve problems such as the immigration crisis. Le Pen and her party have been deeply committed to solving such problems. “The president of the Republic cannot remain deaf to the message sent this evening by the people of France,” National Rally’s President Jordan Bardella told his supporters at the Parc Floral in Paris.
The bottom line is that Macron is not focusing on the issues people want to hear about. Macron himself isn’t eligible for reelection in the next presidential election, which must be held by April 2027, but if he fails to learn from this moment, his successor could be one with vastly differing governing priorities.