The 2024 election is starting to turn into a fiery contest as Republicans try to hold on to hard-won seats in 2022 and Democrats struggle to recover a majority in the House and keep their razor-thin lead in the Senate.
Republicans flipped several House seats in 2022 to secure a majority in the House, and a handful of them are facing competitive toss-up races that lean in their favor in states controlled mainly by Democrats, particularly Republicans facing reelection in New York and California.
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Here are four GOP House races voters should keep an early eye on for the 2024 election.
Arizona House 6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) turned heads in the 2022 midterm elections, appealing to voters with his stance on the southern border and his upbringing as a first-generation American.
Ciscomani was born in Mexico, and he ran his campaign on bringing back the American dream and drew on the experiences of his father, who immigrated to the United States legally. He has gained support from Republicans for his repeated criticism of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and the Biden administration's approach to border security and the rise in fentanyl overdoses.
He defeated Democratic state Sen. Kirsten Engel in the midterm elections, becoming one of the final Republicans to seal the GOP majority in the House. In 2024, his race is a toss-up after voters elected a Democratic governor and reelected Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), making the state blue for the time being.
In Arizona, 15 Democrats and 23 Republicans hold the state's seats in the House. Of the 23 Republicans, only Ciscomani and Rep. David Schweikert's (R-AZ) races are a toss-up.
California House 13: Rep. John Duarte
In 2022, House Democrats lost seats in the nation's two bluest states, California and New York. Nevertheless, California is a state dominated by Democrats, as they hold both the governor's office and the state legislature.
The midterm elections were the first elections held in California after the 2020 census led to redistricting, shifting certain areas of the state to have more pockets of GOP voters. However, Republican seats in the state are often vulnerable, and they will be particularly so in 2024.
One such seat is Rep. John Duarte (R-CA), who had the closest congressional race in 2022.
Duarte won by a few hundred votes, defeating Democratic candidate Adam Gray. The race was called on Dec. 2 after Gray conceded. It was one of two congressional races that were undecided in the days and weeks following the Nov. 8 election.
With a 14-percentage-point Democratic registration advantage in the 2022 race, Duarte would likely face a similar situation in the next election cycle as Democrats double their efforts to regain a majority in the House.
New York House 4: Rep. Anthony D'Esposito
Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) helped bring the GOP a huge victory in flipping New York's 4th Congressional District red for the first time in more than two decades.
D'Esposito has been in the national spotlight recently for his criticism of scandal-ridden Rep. George Santos (R-NY). He and a handful of fellow freshman Republican New York lawmakers have made conscious efforts to distance themselves from Santos, believing he could politically damage them and give Democrats an advantage as they try to flip their seats blue in 2024.
Santos's seat is likely to flip blue. In February, a poll showed 66% of voters across the state believe he should resign from Congress due to revelations that he lied on his resume about his educational and employment background.
This includes 58% of Republicans, which could give D'Esposito an advantage in the race if he presents himself as an ally across the aisle rallying against Santos. However, several GOP lawmakers in the House are taking a backseat to the Santos scandal to focus on other issues, so D'Esposito's vocal disapproval of Santos could also be detrimental to his reelection among Republican voters.
House Democrats are already on the offense, targeting D'Esposito and other freshman lawmakers, such as Reps. Michael Lawler (R-NY), Marc Molinaro (R-NY), and Brandon Williams (R-NY), all seats that are Republican toss-ups, by attempting to link the five representatives to financial contributions provided to them by Santos.
Democrats plan to target Nick LaLota, as well, though his seat is likely to stay Republican, per the Cook Political Report.
Oregon House 5: Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Republicans flooded Oregon's House race in the 5th District with out-of-state contributions totaling more than $7 million in 2022. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) defeated Democratic candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR) in the primary.
Chavez-DeRemer's win cemented a victory for Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and the GOP in the House despite Oregon leaning Democratic on the state level. Both senators and four representatives are Democrats, with just two Republicans, including Chavez-DeRemer, holding House seats for Oregon.
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The race between Chavez-DeRemer and McLeod-Skinner was a tight race that was made even tighter due to redistricting. However, GOP wins in two key counties within the district secured her victory.
Analysts determined that spending from Republicans, as well as ads painting her opponent as anti-police and supportive of liberal policies, boosted Chavez-DeRemer in the race. She is likely to face a tough reelection if Democrats decide to run a more centrist Democratic candidate.