The 2024 election could be determined by the candidate who is able to garner the support of independent voters, a task that has become increasingly complicated as the crucial voting bloc becomes more disaffected with both Republicans and Democrats.
Exit polling from the previous two presidential elections shows that the two major party candidates performed equally well among their own bases, with the winner being determined by whoever secured majority support among independent voters. Now, independents are expected to hold an outsize role in the 2024 cycle as voters prepare for a likely rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — with outside polling showing room for a third-party candidate to gain steam.
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A majority of independent voters say they’d like to see a “viable third-party candidate” run for president, with 61% saying they’d prefer to see that on the 2024 ballot, according to polling from former Tea Party group FreedomWorks shared with the Washington Examiner. That shows a sign of strength for third-party candidates in 2024, as the same group of independents said they did not want Biden (63%) or Trump (58%) to run for reelection.
"Neither Trump nor Biden is beating a nameless independent among independent [voters]. So that's a pretty good toss-up,” Brett Loyd, CEO of the Bullfinch Group, which conducted the poll in conjunction with FreedomWorks, told reporters on Monday. “These independents might actually be looking for an independent if those are the two candidates that are on the ballot."
Most independents say they’d prefer an outside candidate who is not affiliated with either Republicans or Democrats (63%), with another 72% saying they want a politician who “works with both sides of the aisle,” the poll shows. Comparatively, Biden’s and Trump’s favorability ratings sit below 40%, spelling trouble for the two candidates as they both seek reelection.
In order to win over the voting bloc, candidates will likely need to cater to center-of-the-road politics as a majority of independents (56%) identify themselves as centrists, the poll shows.
"We're not usually hearing about an independent candidate not affiliated with Republicans or Democrats,” Loyd said. “But head and shoulders, those favorabilities are above anything else. If you got a candidate that came out and worked with both sides of the aisle — mercy, would they do well."
The polling indicates a wider shift among voters in elections as FreedomWorks seeks to emphasize the importance of independents in determining the outcome of the presidential race. That effort is a shift for the nonprofit organization as it seeks to establish itself as a more centrist group despite its history of promoting far-right talking points and Trump-aligned policies.
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FreedomWorks announced the ideological shift earlier this year, seeking to rebrand itself as more centrist to align itself more closely with independent voters rather than those on the far Right.
The group has not explicitly pushed for an independent or third-party candidate to run in 2024. However, the group has underscored the importance of independent voters in the upcoming election cycle and the path for a third-party candidate.