Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross anticipates that President-elect Donald Trump will face less pushback from Congress over his aggressive use of tariffs than he did during his first term in office, thanks in part to the decline of free-trade Republicans.
In an interview with the Washington Examiner, Ross discussed Trump’s tariff plans and how he expects tariff policy to play out in Trump’s second term. Ross, 87, was one of the main officials tasked with administering tariffs during his time at the Commerce Department, which he led for the entirety of Trump’s first presidency.
“This time, I don’t think there are that many so-called free-traders left in the Congress,” Ross said. “Last time, frankly, we had more trouble with some of the Republicans than we had with the Democrats.”
Before Trump’s ascendence, Republicans generally did not support tariffs. Trump faced blowback from the congressional GOP during his first term after imposing sweeping tariffs. Now, though, congressional Republicans have become far more willing to see tariffs imposed largely because of Trump moving the party in a more populist and protectionist direction.
“The Democrats tend to be more protectionist than the Republicans, but now a lot of those very senior Republican senators who were free trade-oriented have retired — so I don’t think there would be as much problem this time as there was last time,” Ross explained.
For example, former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), a top free-trader, has since retired. So too have other tariff opponents, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ).
Peter Loge, director of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, told the Washington Examiner that the coming Congress — which will feature GOP majorities in both chambers — will be pretty pro-tariff this time around.
He said that some of that shift is attributable to the constituents of lawmakers, who are angry and might blame free trade and globalization for a crumbling U.S. manufacturing base — despite the positives of free trade, such as cheaper goods.
You’ve got a lot of Americans who are feeling the effects of a global economy in some good ways … but it’s also a lot of bad,” Loge said, “because stuff is less expensive overseas, we manufacture overseas, there are fewer things being manufactured in the U.S.”
Ross, who recently released his memoir, Risks and Returns, was responsible for implementing tariffs during Trump’s first term, most notably levies on steel and aluminum.
Trump successfully used Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which gives the president broad power to levy tariffs if there is a threat to national security, to impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum.
But now, the president-elect has vowed to be even more hard-hitting with tariff policy, a stance that has drawn little backlash from Republicans in Congress.
Even before entering office, Trump has already announced some surprise tariffs. Trump said in a social media post that he would put tariffs against Mexico and Canada that would go into effect on Jan. 20, 2025, the day he is sworn in. He said that the 25% tariffs are designed to coerce the two countries into stopping the flow of narcotics and illegal immigrants into the U.S.
In addition, Trump vowed additional 10% tariffs on China for its role in producing some of the ingredients used to produce the fentanyl that makes its way to users in the U.S.
Trump’s most aggressive idea, and the one he campaigned the most on, is to levy 10% to 20% across-the-board tariffs.
He has also called for the power to unilaterally impose tariffs of equal size placed by other countries on the U.S. He would need legislation for that authority, though.
Jason Roe, a veteran Republican consultant, told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s time in the realm of politics and his most recent resounding electoral win has forced the Republican Party to reexamine itself.
“I think there’s a reasonable examination of the pros and cons of free trade after decades of both parties, frankly, pushing free trade policies,” Roe said. “I think what Trump did is maybe force a lot of Republicans to reexamine where they were on free trade and if it has been as beneficial as we would have hoped.”
Roe also said that Trump has demonstrated that being pro-tariff doesn’t necessarily mean implementing them but rather reserve the right to impose them as part of a broader negotiating strategy.
Some Republicans who generally prefer free trade have also publicly said that they think some of the tariff proposals, like the threat of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, are more of a way to get those countries to the negotiating table. For instance, just days after Trump announced the plan, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was spotted dining with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
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Ross expects tariffs will continue to be a key negotiating tool in Trump’s playbook after he enters his second term.
“I think, if anything, he will be more aggressive with tariffs than before. But as he showed last time, you can also use the tariffs as a negotiating measure,” Ross said.