(The Center Square) – Sustainable growth, slower than recent highs coming from the pandemic, is forecast for the $1.76 trillion Florida economy in the next 10 years.
In areas that have surged to begin this decade, a more moderate rate is expected for population growth, economic output and tourism.
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“Overall, Florida’s economy is transitioning to a more stable growth phase,” says the report from Florida TaxWatch, an independent nonpartisan, nonprofit taxpayer research institute. “The findings suggest that while the boom of the post-pandemic years is easing, the state’s economic foundations remain solid, mirroring broader national trends.”
“Florida Economic Forecast 2025-2034” projects income growth to eclipse the national average in the coming years. A dip in tourism for 2025 is expected to position the state to have “more standard, prepandemic growth trajectory” in the following years.
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“While Florida’s population will continue to grow, daily net migration is expected to decrease from 891 in 2025 to 705 by 2034, reflecting a cooling growth rate,” TaxWatch says. “The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to a peak of 4.5% in 2027 before gradually declining to 4% by 2034. Florida’s real GDP growth is forecast at 2.4% for 2025 but is expected to slow to 1.2% by 2034 as the economy normalizes.”