Florida Democrats have been saying the Sunshine State, which has increasingly shifted toward Republicans in recent years, is in play in November, but the spending in the race has not backed up their claims.
Former President Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) are expected to win the presidential and Senate races in Florida in November, but recent polls have shown a closer-than-expected race in both contests. Democrats in the state have maintained they can flip the Senate seat, but a report from the Associated Press shows they have not invested in the campaign as bullishly.
Using data from AdImpact, the report shows Republicans and aligned groups have spent $12.7 million on advertisement reservations through Election Day, while Democrats and aligned groups have only spent $3.2 million on ad reservations for the Senate race as of Wednesday. While spending on advertisements could increase, the significant GOP advantage in spending is unlike most Senate races considered battlegrounds.
Despite the spending disadvantage, Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried has touted organizing efforts by the state party as a reason to feel confident in a Sunshine State flip. The state party said it had volunteers knocking on 400,000 doors, making 1.3 million phone calls, and sending 4.8 million text messages as part of its election efforts.
“In the last month alone, Florida Democrats across the state have contacted millions of voters to get out the vote. We are seeing an unprecedented level of enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz ticket and we will continue this momentum as we head into the November elections,” Fried said in a statement.
Democrats are also counting on an abortion ballot measure to boost Democratic turnout, as the amendment would need 60% to pass.
Republicans are leaning on a significant registered-voter advantage they have amassed in recent years. Democrats had long held an advantage in registered voters, but in 2021, the GOP passed Democrats in the number of registered voters in the state. As of the end of August, Republicans hold a 1,026,200 registered-voter advantage in Florida over Democrats.
Polling in the Senate race has been closer than the result of the 2022 Senate contest in the Sunshine State, with a poll from the Hill-Emerson College showing Scott only leading Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46% to 45%.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
In 2022’s Senate race between Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and then-Rep. Val Demings, Rubio had only led his Democratic challenger by 2 to 3 percentage points in polls conducted in early September but won the race by 16.4 points.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Scott leads Mucarsel-Powell, 46.3% to 42%, while Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris, 49% to 43%, in the Sunshine State. The Cook Political Report has rated both contests as “likely Republican.”