New polling suggests that Floridians have mixed opinions about the abortion-rights amendment that will be on the ballot in November, signaling a shaky footing for abortion advocates heading into the 2024 election.
A poll published Monday from USA Today and Ipsos found that only half of Floridian adults said they would vote in favor of the broad-reaching abortion-rights amendment, which is 10 percentage points short of the 60% majority of votes necessary for an amendment to be ratified to the Sunshine State’s constitution.
Abortion-rights activists contend that the state Supreme Court’s decision earlier this month to uphold the six-week abortion ban will fuel support for the amendment and Democratic candidates in the general election.
Nearly three-quarters of Democrats expressed support for the abortion initiative, while only 52% of independents supported the measure. Of Republicans, 58% opposed Amendment 4.
Florida Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 1 million registered voters, totaling 5.2 million Republicans compared to 4.4 million Democrats and 3.5 million voters not affiliated with a party.
The text of the measure, Amendment 4, prevents the passage of any law that would “prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
In the context of Amendment 4, viability refers to the period at which a fetus can survive outside of the mother’s womb. Although this is variable depending on the health conditions of the mother and the child, medical experts agree viability is generally between 20 and 24 weeks.
After legal challenges regarding the clarity of the amendment and its summary that will appear on the ballot, the Florida Supreme Court approved the measure on the same day that it upheld the six-week abortion ban.
The “Yes On 4” campaign, run by Floridians Protecting Freedom, has raised nearly $20 million to date from abortion-rights groups and supporters across the country. As of January, the group received well over 1.5 million signatures to get the issue on the ballot.
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Abortion supporters are working to include abortion-rights amendments on the ballot in several states for the 2024 election. So far, Florida, along with Maryland and New York, are the only states that have secured the issue of abortion rights on the November ballot.
Advocates in eight other states, including Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota, are currently working to gain enough valid signatures to place their respective measures on the ballot.