Social Security is one of the most pressing concerns for voters this November. The trust fund is projected to dry up in about 10 years, yet efforts to reform it have stalled, and neither presidential candidate seems inclined to weigh in. This Washington Examiner series, Social Security Stakes, will look into how we got here, what could be done, and if anybody has the stomach to tackle it. Read Part One here.

While news of a bipartisan fiscal commission has seemingly stalled during a contentious election year, budget experts and lawmakers see one as the best chance to stabilize Social Security as insolvency looms.

The idea of a bipartisan fiscal commission designed to stabilize Social Security and Medicare and rein in the country’s growing national debt and deficits kicked off in earnest about a year ago when Mike Johnson (R-LA) replaced ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

SOCIAL SECURITY STAKES: WHY EFFORTS TO STAVE OFF EXHAUSTION HAVE FIZZLED OUT

Johnson, a fiscal conservative, even pushed for a bipartisan debt commission during his first remarks to the House after becoming speaker.

“The consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable. We have a duty to the American people to explain this to them so they understand it well,” said Johnson, who, as House speaker, is second in line of presidential succession behind Vice President Kamala Harris.

“We are going to establish a bipartisan debt commission to begin working on this crisis immediately,” he added.

Since then, some progress has been made in forming such a commission, but it has been months and members still have not been chosen. Despite the stall and the tricky politics involved, budget experts still are holding out hope.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, noted during a call with the Washington Examiner that she expects the formation of a commission to gain traction as it gets more attention.

“My guess is that it will be adopted in the coming months or years,” she said. “It is the most sensible approach there is and particularly because politicians don’t want to actually do the hard work and pass the policies we know we need to do. I think we are likely to end up with a commission, but I would never expect it to sail through the first time around Washington.”

In January, the House Budget Committee voted to advance bipartisan legislation that would form a panel consisting of both Republican and Democratic lawmakers from both chambers of Congress, in addition to outside experts. The committee would work to fix Social Security and stabilize the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product.

While no members of such a commission have been chosen, the problem is dire. The exhaustion date for the trust fund for the combined Social Security retirement and disability funds is expected in 2035, according to the trustees. They predict that the combined Social Security trust fund and Disability Insurance trust fund will only be enough to pay 83% of scheduled benefits at that time.

Social Security ‘on an unsustainable path’

One such member of the House Budget Committee hoping to stabilize Social Security is Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI).

McClain, the secretary of the House Republican Conference and a member of the House Budget Committee, told the Washington Examiner in an interview that prospective members of the debt commission and members of the Budget Committee are taking the matter of stabilizing Social Security “very seriously.”

“Let’s be honest with each other, Social Security right now is on an unsustainable path,” McClain said. “And both sides agree, right? We know that if we do nothing, if we do absolutely nothing, in 2033 it’s going to hit the fiscal cliff.”

But the deadline is ticking. Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said she expects next year to be key, given the opportunity for a “clean slate” after an election year.

She also pointed out that 2025 is just a big year for fiscal policy in general given that some major milestones are coming next year. For instance, a large tranche of the 2017 Trump tax cuts are expiring.

“But that being said, we all know that Congress likes to wait until the last minute, and so while it would be great to see conversations about a fiscal commission come back into the fold now, we’re unfortunately not seeing that quite yet,” Snyderman told the Washington Examiner.

The committee in question is made up of 12 members of Congress from both sides of the aisle. There are also four members of the commission from outside Congress who are experts in the matter. McClain said the outside experts will give a valuable perspective from outside the Washington “bubble.”

“So the outside experts are going to be a very valuable addition,” McClain said.

McClain said she is not personally inclined to move toward raising the retirement age, something that some economists and political figures think might be necessary.

“I can share with you I definitely don’t want to raise the age, I don’t want to reduce the benefits,” McClain said.

But she added that what course of action will be taken comes down to what the commission itself decides to do.

“But what do we do? Do we incentivize more people to work and get back to work, who will pay into Social Security? Do we take a look at how Social Security is structured in terms of fraud?” McClain said. “You know, those are noncut methods, but at the end of the day, I think we’ve got to start talking about solutions now and stop kicking the can down the road because we know where it’s going to end in 2033.”

MacGuineas said one function of a bipartisan fiscal commission is to afford a bit of political cover to lawmakers.

“The point of a commission, and there are a number of advantages of it, but one it provides the political cover that is needed for such hard choices,” she said.

MacGuineas also said a commission allows members to really dig into the issues and hear one another’s perspectives on the matter. A commission is also a “great companion” to a public education effort, which gives voters a chance to understand exactly what is at stake unless changes are made, she said.

Some who study the budget and have been closely tracking the looming Social Security and Medicare deadlines say some hard choices will have to be made, even though they might be very unpopular with voters.

Brian Riedl, a budget expert at the Manhattan Institute, told the Washington Examiner that there are three significant levers for Social Security reform that can be pulled. The first is trimming benefits, the second is raising the retirement age, and the third is increasing taxes coming into the system.

“A sustainable Social Security reform will almost certainly consist of all three levers,” he said. “Some degree of benefit cuts, age increases, and new revenues.”

The problem is, according to Riedl, that the longer the lawmakers wait, the bigger the Social Security shortfalls grow, the bigger the debt grows, and any reform would have to be even more drastic. He said he also thinks plans should be put into place now to ease people into changes with retirement if that is the course that Congress takes.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“When we’re talking about people planning for retirement, you want these reforms to be enacted gradually, while people have several years to adjust their retirement strategies rather than drastically at the last minute because of a looming insolvency date,” Riedl said.

Riedl said he doesn’t think the formation of a fiscal commission could hurt, but past experience shows that such commissions only work when both parties are working together and “addressing the sacred cows.”