The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to be capitalizing on the Wagner Group's inability to seize Bakhmut in Ukraine by making its leaders the scapegoats.
The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has unsuccessfully attempted to capture the strategically insignificant city of Bakhmut for months. This comes after Russian forces piled up a series of losses in the war, and over the course of the paramilitary group's efforts, Prigozhin has criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense.
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov are now likely trying deliberately to expend Wagner forces in Bakhmut to hamper Prigozhin’s efforts to expand his influence in the Kremlin as the two sides have "likely reached a boiling point over Bakhmut," the Institute for the Study of War said in its Sunday rundown of the latest events in the war.
Both sides are incurring heavy losses in the battle in Bakhmut, and while Russian troops are making incremental advancements, the fighting is proving to be more difficult as they approach the city center.
“The closer we are to the city center, the harder the battles, the more artillery works against us, and the more tanks," Prigozhin said in a video message posted Sunday on Telegram, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his Sunday night address that since March 6, they managed to kill 1,100 Russian soldiers and another 1,500 were seriously wounded in Bakhmut alone.
The Wagner Group leader urged Zelensky and Ukrainian military leaders to withdraw their troops from Bakhmut earlier this month, but Ukrainian forces have continued to fight even as the enemy has taken over much of the city.
Last month, Prigozhin accused Gerasimov and Shoigu of "treason" for supposedly intentionally providing his troops with fewer resources, leading to unnecessary deaths. While Prigozhin had publicly criticized the military's performance in the war, this marked a new level of the feud.
He was able to garner Russian President Vladimir Putin's support last year following Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv oblast and in Lyman, in Donetsk oblast, amid the turbulent reserve mobilization in September-October 2022. But Russian military leadership is now likely "attempting to avenge itself on Prigozhin for a conflict that he initiated," the ISW said in its report.
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"Putin and the Russian MoD may use Prigozhin as a scapegoat for the costly drive on Bakhmut once the offensive culminates. ISW assessed on February 5 that Putin relies on a group of scapegoats to publicly take risks in his place and shoulder the blame for Russian military failures and unpopular policies," it concluded. "Putin will likely use Wagner’s high casualties, reports about poor morale, and war crimes to deflect from likely equal or possibly worse problems within the Russian Armed Forces. Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers have ambushed Prigozhin with interviews that exposed numerous Wagner controversies regarding the ineffectiveness and mistreatment of the Wagner convict force — likely in an effort to set conditions in the Russian information space to discredit Wagner."
Prigozhin is unlikely to gain the same sway in Putin's eyes that he had previously, the ISW concluded.