Opinions by supposedly knowledgeable individuals that the countries that make up the European Union as well as the United Kingdom will align with China against the United States are devoid of common sense.

Yes, the countries of Western Europe are angry at the economic policies, especially the tariffs, of President Donald Trump. At the same time, however, these free nations know that the U.S. is a representative democracy, governed by the rule of law. European countries also know that Trump’s time in office is limited. They have political experts who report that Trump is steadily losing popularity because of his tariffs and his other policy mistakes.

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The free countries of Europe also understand that when the chips are down the American people see Western Europeans as allies not as adversaries. The citizens of the U.S. and Europe share the common values of democracy, human rights and a general belief in free markets. 

By stark contrast, the People’s Republic of China, an extreme authoritarian state, ruled by one man, Xi Jinping, the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, does not share the values of Western Civilization. China does not believe in representative government. China has zero interest in human rights. In China, the state is everything, the people are nothing. Nor does China believe in basic free market capitalism. China believes that its economy and everything else about the Chinese nation serves only one purpose, to perpetuate the power of the Chinese Communist Party.  

In turn, while Europe may make diplomatic overtures to China in order to demonstrate to President Trump that Europe will not bend to his will, Europe will not become a pawn for China in the battle for global economic dominance. Trump is certainly bringing Europe and China closer together in shared antipathy for his trade policies, but there are fundamental limits to Europe’s comfort for such coziness.

Western Europe continues to be a global economic power.  It has lost market share in the global economy over the past two decades but it remains third in the global economic order after the U.S. and China. Europe will not be pushed around by Trump, but neither will Europe be intimidated by China.  

Europe is also a great manufacturing power.  Germany, the leading economy of Western Europe, is a global manufacturing powerhouse. It ranks number 4 among manufacturing nations. Europe knows that China must export its excess production of manufactured goods or the Chinese economy withers. Deflation has taken hold in China. Domestic demand is very weak.  Europe understands that the Chinese economy suffers from entrenched weaknesses that are getting worse not better. Arguably, China is in terminal economic decline at this very moment. Demographics, debt, and deflation are rapidly hollowing out the Chinese economy. 

Most crucially, Europe recognizes that when Trump leaves office in 4 years, the U.S. will almost certainly remain the world’s largest economy. And that it will continue to be the world leader in technological innovation and application.

In contrast, China cannot be trusted by European powers. China routinely violates the terms of the World Trade Organization. China subsidizes its manufacturing sector and dumps excess production on overseas markets, including markets in Europe. Europe recognizes that if it aligns itself with China, China will simply use that agreement as a lever to export more and more manufactured goods into the economies of Western Europe. China is the red wolf that would destroy the European manufacturing sector. This is already evident as Europe tries to limit China’s ability to sell state-subsidized cheap internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles into Europe and undermine a crown jewel of the European economy, its motor vehicle industry.  

Germany, the most powerful country in Europe, is especially vulnerable to Chinese goods exports, especially vehicle exports. Germany is rapidly losing market share to China in the global market for manufactured goods. Germany will not align with China. Germany would veto any attempt by the European Union to reject the U.S. and to choose to serve the interests of the Chinese Communist Party.

TRUMP IS TO BLAME FOR SELL-OFF IN US TREASURYS

Perhaps, the major diplomatic issue facing the countries of western Europe is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany is remilitarizing in order to contain the military threat posed by Russia. On the matter of Ukraine, China supports Russia. It is ludicrous to think that Germany and the rest of free Europe would align with China and tacitly allow Russia to recreate the Empire of the former Soviet Union. 

Free Europe knows that opening the doors of the European continent to China would be today’s equivalent of the Trojan horse of Homer’s epic poem.

James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in finance and law for 30 years. He writes a daily note on the markets, politics, and society. He can be reached at [email protected].