(The Center Square) – Erin, once a Category 5 hurricane over the weekend that more than doubled wind speed to nearly 160 mph, on Monday morning remained on a path to miss landfall of the United States though not without forcing evacuations in North Carolina.
At 8 a.m., the Category 4 hurricane was just east of the southeastern Bahamas, the National Weather Center said, about 115 miles north-northeast of the Grand Turk Islands, and about 890 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Erin was moving northwest at 13 mph, forecast to be going north by Wednesday morning while parallel to the Florida panhandle.
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Erin had 75 mph maximum winds Friday at 11 a.m., a Category 1, and 24 hours later was near 160 mph and Category 5. It has since gone to a Category 3 before gaining more intensity.
On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Category 1 is 74-95 mph, Category 2 is 96-110, Category 3 is major and 111-129 mph, Category 4 is 130-156 mph, and Category 5 is greater than 157 mph. While the most-often characterization of Atlantic basin cyclones, the scale is without context on storm surge – a key factor in damage at landfall.
Dare County on Sunday declared an emergency with evacuations ordered for Hatteras Island and the Outer Banks. N.C. 12, the famed 148-mile roadway linking peninsulas and islands of the Outer Banks, is likely to go under water and parts could wash away – as often happens with hurricanes.
NC12 begins at U.S. 70 at the community of Sea Level and runs to a point just north of Corolla and south of the Currituck Banks North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve. Two ferries, Hatteras Island to Ocracoke Island and Cedar Island to Ocracoke Island, are part of the route.
Nearly all of North Carolina’s 301-mile coastline is within the outer wind field projection from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center. The greatest speed, however, is 20 mph.
Erin’s rapid intensity is among the greatest on record, and particularly so for prior to Sept. 1. Hurricane force winds (74 mph) extend 60 miles from its center.
By midnight Thursday into Friday, the storm is expected to be past a point parallel to the Virginia-North Carolina border and gaining speed away from the coast.
The storm’s miss of the state is particularly welcome in light of Hurricane Helene. Recovery from that storm is in its 47th week. Helene killed 107 in the state, 236 across seven states in the South, and caused an estimated $60 billion in damage to North Carolina.