(The Center Square) – High tide peak storm surges from Hurricane Erin are forecast from 1 to 3 feet between South Carolina and Virginia, and 2 to 4 feet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Erin at 8 a.m. Wednesday was Category 2 at 100 mph maximum sustained winds and moving 13 mph to the north-northwest, having started to make the turn away from the mainland as expected. The National Hurricane Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the storm’s center was 645 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, and 900 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.
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Veteran meteorologists have marveled at the size of the storm.
Hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) extend outward 90 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) extend 265 miles from the center. Rain for the Carolina coast is just 1 to 2 inches Wednesday and into Thursday, with damage coming more from storm surge than rain or wind.
The next high tides on the Outer Banks are 6:18 p.m. Wednesday, and Thursday at 6:45 a.m. and 7:10 p.m. Erin has already sent Atlantic Ocean water over dunes and N.C. 12, the famed 148-mile roadway linking peninsulas and islands of the Outer Banks.
Mandatory evacuations have been issued for Ocracoke Island in Hyde County and Hatteras Island in Dare County. Each county has declared an emergency.
Storm surge warnings were in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck; a tropical storm warning was in effect from Beaufort Inlet to the Virginia border inclusive of the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds; and a tropical storm watch was in effect from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Chincoteague, Va.
The Wednesday evening high tide for coastal South Carolina, including Charleston, and southern North Carolina is being closely watched for flooding. Early Thursday evening is the expected time of coastal flooding from the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern Chesapeake Bay down to eastern North Carolina.
The storm’s projected path through the weekend skirts parallel to moving more away from the Atlantic Seaboard. Thursday’s pass is by the Carolinas and Virginia, and Friday the storm will be moving by Maine.
Coastal rescues from rip currents in North Carolina, according to published reports, have numbered between 75 and 100 over Monday and Tuesday.
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As often happens with hurricanes, water began to run over N.C. 12 on Tuesday. The highway begins at U.S. 70 at the community of Sea Level and runs to a point just north of Corolla and south of the Currituck Banks North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve. Two ferries, Hatteras Island to Ocracoke Island and Cedar Island to Ocracoke Island, are part of the route.
The storm’s landfall miss of the state is particularly welcome in light of Hurricane Helene. Recovery from that storm is in its 47th week. Helene killed 107 in the state, 236 across seven states in the South, and caused an estimated $60 billion in damage to North Carolina.