EXCLUSIVE — Last week, Americans learned for the first time that U.S. troops are permanently stationed on islands in the Taiwan Strait, including one that sits a mere mile from China’s southeast coast. The development, which many believe will escalate tensions between China and the U.S., comes on the heels of a drumbeat of headlines from the past few years that signal Beijing’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy, which includes designs for “reunification” with Taiwan. President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated that, to defend the young democracy and protect U.S. interests in the region, armed forces would be used to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.
Among those sounding the alarm over the U.S.’s preparedness for military conflict in Asia is Elbridge Colby, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development and co-founder of the Marathon Initiative, a think-tank that develops strategies to prepare the U.S. for great power competition. A rising star and intellectual leader in Republican foreign policy, Colby’s 2021 book The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict was listed by the Wall Street Journal as one of the top 10 books of the year. The Washington Examiner recently sat down with Colby for an exclusive interview.
Washington Examiner: How concerned should the American public be by a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan?
Elbridge Colby: Very. It’s important to stress that I don’t claim to know what China is going to do. And I don’t think anybody does. My best guess is Xi Jinping has not made a final decision about whether to use military force in Taiwan. But what we do know beyond question is that China is actively and massively preparing its military and its economy for a confrontation with the United States. As Adm. John Aquilino recently said, they’re on track to be ready by 2027.
Of course, readiness is relative given your opponent and time. I think there is a debate about the probability that something will happen, but I don’t think that’s really the issue. The issue is really — what does the United States need to do to prudently prepare? The Chinese are actively and avidly preparing, and if we’re unprepared, that dramatically raises the likelihood of a conflict. So this seems to me to be a straightforward case. We should be on the safe side and preparing to go through the “peace through strength” model.
The reality is that we are not as prepared as we should be. Are we doing nothing? No. But are we doing enough? Absolutely not.
Washington Examiner: Given all of our current foreign entanglements, how highly should the U.S. be prioritizing the potential for a conflict or blockade in Taiwan?
Colby: I think it should be the top military planning priority. 2027, as people regularly point out, is not a prediction of what the Chinese will do, but it’s highly illuminating that, at the leadership levels of the People’s Republic in a centralized system, the supreme leader has directed the military to be ready by 2027. That’s at a minimum highly suggestive. The best course of action for us, if you want to have peace, which I genuinely do, would be to allow your adversary off ramps for dignity, but also provide a strong deterrent and disincentive to action. That’s what we’re not doing and what I’d really stress that we do.
Whoever is elected in 2024, their presidential term will cover the year 2027, and again, it could happen before or after. The only prudent course of action for whoever is in office is to double down on making sure that China doesn’t see a good opportunity to use military force against Taiwan or anywhere in the first island chain.
Whoever is going to be “in the seat,” so to speak, has to reckon with the reality that we can’t walk and chew gum. Even if we got dramatic defense spending increases, it would take years and years to pan out. It would be way beyond 2027. And moreover, I don’t see interest in this country for dramatic defense spending increases. Back in 2017, Defense Secretary James Mattis pointed out that we would need 3-5% real year on year increases just to fund the 2018 Nation Defense Strategy, which was highly focused on China. And now we are supporting the Ukrainians and have elevated force levels in Europe, and now we’re spending a year’s worth of munitions or more against the Houthis without demonstrable impact, so we are really deep in a hole.
Washington Examiner: What would be the immediate ramifications of a Chinese invasion or blockade in Taiwan? Why should this be a higher priority than, say, Ukraine?
Colby: This is something I’ve spent more time on than anything, to try and make clear what the stakes are for Americans here. The issue of Taiwan is not really important for Americans because of Taiwan, but because of Asia’s importance and how powerful China is. If China dominates Asia, that is going to have very direct and concrete effects on American lives, on their prosperity and liberty.
Unfortunately, I don’t feel that that message has penetrated. On the elite center-Left, the revealed priority is Europe. That’s where the emotional energy is. There’s been very little dramatic attention to Asia. There’s military progress going on, but it’s way below what’s needed.
There’s a lot of war fatigue among Americans. I saw a poll, I think by the AP, that said a majority of Republicans and half of independents want Americans to take a lower role in the world. Democrats wanted a greater role in the world, but according to a different poll by Reuters, a majority of Democrats don’t believe in the use of force in any or nearly any circumstance. So, in practice, most Americans don’t want to get into a foreign war, including Republicans who would have traditionally been sympathetic. It’s a very difficult situation. I’m not highly optimistic that we are going to generate the resolve to focus on Taiwan.
There’s been a lot of attention going to TikTok — I’m not a fan of TikTok, but banning it is not going to be a central issue in dealing with China. If China dominates Asia, forget about things such as TikTok. China is going to force us to use their companies. We should be investing the political energy going into the TikTok issue into strengthening our military deterrent along the first island chain. But that’s not what is happening.
Washington Examiner: If we don’t summon the will to respond in Taiwan, what will be the consequences in the region? Will there be an arms race? Will the U.S. have lost its credibility in Asia?
Colby: We’ll be lucky if there’s an arms race. What could happen is a collapse of confidence in the U.S. and an effort by countries in the region to accommodate China. Countries such as the Philippines, South Korea, even Japan and Australia, they are working with the U.S. because they want to stand up to China. But fundamentally, they’re doing it because they think it’s a safe bet. They think America is a strong force, and so it’s prudent to align with us against a rising and increasingly assertive China.
If we get smoked over Taiwan or if we back down, that’s going to cause those calculations to change. Those countries are going to say, “I don’t want to live under Chinese domination, but if my alternative is to be beaten down and made an example of by Beijing, I’m going to cut a deal.” If we give up or lose Taiwan, it’s not going to relieve us of the need to focus on Asia. It’s going to actually take a lot more because countries will doubt us, so we will have to do more on our own. That’s not going to be the end of the problem but the beginning. China will be emboldened at that point because aggression and risk against the U.S. will have worked. The people in the Chinese system who call America a paper tiger will have been vindicated.
Washington Examiner: It’s incredible how willing some are to use this logic in relation to Ukraine but not Taiwan. They argue that if Russia’s Vladimir Putin takes Ukraine, he’ll keep going until he conquers Europe, but you never hear that argument in regards to China.
Colby: It’s so detached from the military and geopolitical reality. China is 10 times the size of Russia economically. Russia just lacks the capacity to barrel through Poland on the way to the English Channel — they just can’t do it. Whereas if China takes Taiwan, it is right in the middle of the Asian theater.
But for a lot of people on the Left, their revealed priority is Europe and Putin. It’s bizarre that the party that is supposedly against “Eurocentrism” is so strategically Eurocentric. I personally value Western civilization very dearly, but the strategic center of the world now is Asia, so we should be focused on Asia.
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Peter Laffin is a contributor at the Washington Examiner. His work has also appeared in RealClearPolitics, the Catholic Thing, and the National Catholic Register.